I do think that ONXX has some room to run, but we are talking about say 20% or so as ONNX could clear $100 next year, and any buyout if is comes should be at least $10 higher that. For the life of me I still don't understand why Bayer didn't buy ONXX for $50 earlier in the year when it was hovering at about $30/share. On October 30th they will report quarterly earnings and we will get a look at the initial Carfilzomib sales. There might also be some news about initial Regorafenib sales. Nexavar sales finally started to take off in Asia, the largest market for HCC, so I would like to see Nexavar sales in Asia accelerate. Still, I am looking to sell some as it has grown to much too high of a percentage of my portfolio with its move from $30 to mid $80s
I do like MDVN a sit has probably more of an upside than ONXX with about the same low risk. When I do sell some ONXX, I will buy some MDVN and IMGN. I look the latter at a low risk with a decent upside but its HERCEPTIN conjugate T-DM1 will only bring single digit royalties from a very large multi-billion breast cancer market. There is room to grow but it will take a bit of time, think years, but its antibody conjugate linker is clearly a success and it can be used with other antibodies.
Stocks with a bang for the buck along with risk, I am looking at increasing my EXEL shares, and starting a position in ARQL. There was a nice discussion on the latter on the Biotech Values board on IHub. Pay special attention to the poster iwfal, who I think it the best one there, but also read jq1234, acgood, biomaven and mcBio. The Hamerstock blog is the best and a great resource even just to see what he owns as that guy is on the ball. Iwfal was the guy who took techtrader to the woodshed and spanked on this board. The crux is that ARQ-197 will be utilized in only the high MET population in an HCC trial. ARQ-197 just failed in lung cancer, but showed excellent efficacy in patients with elevated MET but was very detrimental in low MET patients. Kind of like how poorly current smokers fared in the Ganetespib NSCLC phase II trial in progress. As far as SNTA, I think it is relatively safe until after the phase II trial data has been completed, so a nice bump higher is still pretty likely, then the risk of phase III begins. Iwfal pointed out there has been a slight favoring towards patients in the Ganetespib +DOC i the phase II trial data so far with respect to some factors (e.g. fewer smokers), but in my view that is somewhat counter balanced by the presence of the very poor performance of current smokers in that treatment arm. I am also thinking about increasing my shares of SNTA prior to the final phase II data completion next year and then lightening up at some point well before the phase III data is released.
Thanks for acknowledging that ganetespib results were a bit disappointing in some sub populations. I hope this doesn't go the way of ARQL, but I'm concerned given the number of Hedge funds that pulled out of SNTA last quarter. It's as though they see the writing on the wall. If SNTA begins to fall, the descent will rival the fall after the Symmetry trial.
thanks. i am going to try to buy mdvn for the short term for a bounce and buy some more snta. There are so many phase 2 trials with snta that the lung cancer seems to be the most advanced with interum results around feb. I assume that will be the trial with full phase 2 results?