I realize the CEO recently reiterated that all that matters is extending the survivability of patients on the Lung Cancer trial. But aren't you concerned that others might not interpret the results the same way and the stock price will plummet like it did before? Interim results are scheduled to be announced next Friday. Those results could either have a positive or negative impact on this whole short squeeze prediction of yours. Any thoughts on that? We're getting down to crunch time. The stakes are very, very high!
Actually, Sunday. Turning serious though, what downside risk is there from this presentation next Sunday? Seriously?? if you look at the accurate information that Wilderguide posted, it is clear that PFS HR in all adenocarc. population was the only really stellar data point which pointed to statistical significance and approval. The OS HR in the all adeno carc. population was ok, but at a 90% confidence level (as opposed to a tighter 95% level), the p-value is not super. There will be no updates on this data, simply a rehash, and thus the "good" data from the ASCO presentation of June will just be regurgitated. The only update will be on eLDH and mKRAS - both of which were very poor. The worst of data expectations on eLDH and mKRAS have been factored in by investors and shorts, just look at the data in Wilderguide's post. The confidence intervals straddle 1, the p-values are far from significant and all at a confidence level of 90%. As this data was so bad, and the only "new news" on Sunday will be an update on eLDH and mKRAS, I don't see how we can have scope for anything but potentially and upside surprise. I encourage anyone to explain differently.
Well constructed concern ....Wilderguide just responded with a well thought out answer. To get some scientific minds to respond and add some positive reinforcement will be very helpful (if warranted). It may be a volatile week with the PPS; let alone the govt. circus events with the Debt ceiling issue.
The only true caution I would add further to the basic stats & update would be the standard cautionary note: Read the authors disclosures wrt stock ownership. In this particular case, there are many potential COF...including an open disclosure of SNTA stock ownership by the lead author.
That said, I think that every bit as important as this combination trial with docetaxel may prove to be for the future of Ganetespib, I feel that the importance of G's ability to mitigate Crizotinib resistance may prove to be of greater widespread commercial value. Relatively speaking, docetaxel is a dinosaur, and is likely to soon be replaced by Crizotinib as SOC 1st line therapy in the very near future. (Ref NEJM, Oct 2012)
If G rides those coattails, commercial success is a virtual guarantee. JMHO
Here's from the Ganetespib plus Docetaxel poster presentation scheduled for the 29th at the ECC 2013. HR values strike me as a bit high, but the "p" values are completely in-line with current standards of clinical acceptance. I'd expect further updates that day...
"At the time of abstract submission OS HR in the all adenocarcinoma population was 0.69 (90% CI 0.48 to 0.99, p=0.093). In the mKRAS group OS HR was 0.63 (90% CI 0.31 to 1.28, p=0.14), and in the eLDH group OS HR was 0.57 (90% CI 0.32 to 1.01, p=0.05). The PFS HR in the all adenocarcinoma population was 0.70 (90% CI 0.53 to 0.94, p=0.012). In the mKRAS group the PFS HR was 0.93 (90% CI 0.53 to 1.65, p=0.58), and in the eLDH group PFS HR was 0.82 (90% CI 0.50 to 1.35, p=0.75). Updated mKRAS and eLDH results, including ORR, PFS and OS, will be presented at the meeting.
Conclusions: Treatment with D+G showed a favorable safety profile. Encouraging survival improvement was observed in the combination arm in all adenocarcinoma patients, including mKRAS and eLDH patients"