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Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. Message Board

  • jfk123_1 jfk123_1 Sep 29, 2013 10:53 PM Flag

    My assessment of Saturday's investor call

    This is meant as an assessment with a view to things that matter for the share price, as opposed to some of the dopes who post here in order to disinform or boost their pathetic egos with irrelevant off topic and often incomprehensible babble.

    I only was able to listen to about 3/4 of the presentation - the internet is not working properly in my building.

    Points (some positive and some negative as will be highlighted):

    1) UBS analyst on the call. Positive. That follows on from the meeting they had with management over a month ago. Coverage from a major bank would be positive. It opens up the door to a much broader investor base, both retail and institutional. I look forward to them rolling out coverage.

    2) Apparently the control in Galaxy 1 has done better than what would normally be expected. This would indicate that the already statistically significant signal, OS and favourable hazard ratios in chemo responders (the population for the phase 3 Galaxy 2) and eLDH are in all likelihood even stronger than the data reported so far. If the control group in Galaxy 2 reverts back to a more historically normal performance (likely as the sample size is even larger), then the signal, OS hazard ratios, etc. will be even better than in Galaxy 1. Read into this, and the likelihood of phase 3 success and approval by the FDA is now very high.

    3) ENCHANT2 is contingent on partnership and partnership negotiations ongoing. This was stated on the call. This is big news. Remember, a month ago they were only expanding ENCHANT1, now they are already in negotiations for ENCHANT2 with a partner? A phase2b/3 trial? Talk about a ringing endorsement of Ganetespib in breast cancer.

    4) Mesothelioma phase 1 trial showing a "strong" Ganet. signal. Another cancer type to throw into the revenue stream in the longer term.

    5) Factor of 2 in new lesions/metastasis reduction. This is quite positive data period. Some circle jerks may want detailed analysis to explain, but it is the fact.

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