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Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. (SNTA) Message Board

  • texasblackswan texasblackswan Oct 13, 2013 1:21 PM Flag

    More words to Toadear

    I read more your posts and will not say I learn nothing from you. You should be a nice guy and remind me some professors in my graduate school days. We still seek advice from school professors for some inputs on some business problems. One of my old PhD advisors always like to list all kinds of information we already know to justify his advice. Although we sometimes laugh, we do respect his knowledge and kindness trying to be objective. If my past words are too harsh and might hurt you, I own you apology. To show you respect, I put some more words to explain my view from understanding the human and money behind the price movement and why I stay strong long on SNTA now.

    As usual, I first bought some shares around 5 and have increased my position on SNTA with more confidence. My goal is 20+ in 1-2 years, which will depend on more clinical data, patents, partnership, financing, all fundamentals you have talked. The market will take its time to truly value a stock. Of course, the biotech investing is with high risk. If something is not going right as I wish, I need sell and get out. But, before the market valuation really progresses, there need be a battle, a battle to decide the fate of 18 m share shorts. Nobody truly knows what has happened. Let me go through the process and provide one possible scenario.

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    • On Apr 30 and May 15, the company had public release and presented some GALAXY data. It was not as fantastic as wished and some investors started some selling. As always, the shorts smelled a prey. They chose SNTA for their attack and tried to make SNTA a one-dollar stock or a penny stock (if you were on this board in June and July, you know what I mean). However, they did not know that Kovner and Caxton are so determined to defend their bottom line and bought over 30 m shares above 4-5 dollar. No matter how many shares the shorts dumped into the market, they could not push this down anymore. In the mean time, when insider big buying was known to public, new investors like you and me jumped in. The market trend or market sentiment started changing. After the company released good news on breast cancer then HDC platform, the shorts turned to panic then desperate. However, the human nature is driving them to make a bad decision. They do more shorting to constrain the price down and defend themselves now no matter how much loss they could take in the future. The current SNTA price is rather a manipulation of market from short side than true reflection of its market value. The efficient market theory could work for long term but rarely work in short term.

      So we come to the current situation: an undervalued stock, low float, high shorts, the insider and big funds own 120% company shares (Yes, the shorts have to borrow their shares then sell to them). Jfk analyzed this from his technical system. I analyze the markets forces. Although I don’t count on his timing, I support his view that this is a great set-up for a short squeeze event.

      • 3 Replies to texasblackswan
      • texasblackswan,

        I understand what you are saying and it makes some sense. But you leave out some very important details.

        1- Short Interest is very high, but it has been very high for several months. The CHANGE IN short interest is the important factor to consider. Yes, it has continually crept up, but only 2,000,000 shares since July. I don't think that it is fair to call these additional 2,000,000 shares "market manipulation".

        2- It is true, as you stated, that Kovner and Caxton purchased 30,000,000 shares. You do realize that these purchases alone account for almost twice the TOTAL short interest? Yet, you don't call this "market manipulation". Why? It is the exact same thing except on the long side.

        3- You agreed with syenfrout that SNTA has NO earnings and just POTENTIAL to sell. But then turn around again and claim that the Company is "undervalued". How? As I have said before, SNTA is fairly valued at its current price level. The only thing that will change that is VERIFIABLE news. If the news is great, then YES, SNTA should move significantly higher. If it is disappointing, then you can bet it will move lower. That does not change the FACT that SNTA is fairly valued based on their financial performance, opportunities, and available information AS OF TODAY.

        PERSONALLY, I think SNTA "potential" far outweighs its "risks", therefore I am LONG the stock. But this is my PERSONAL sentiment on the stock. The overall sentiment has SNTA valued at around $6.50.

        (if) WHEN good news is announced (which I believe will happen before the end of the year) there WILL be a short squeeze. That squeeze will TEMPORARILY push the stock to an artificially high share price. My analysis says this will be in the $20-25 range. HOWEVER, (if) WHEN this news is announced, the shares will fall back to a "fair" valuation of $15-18.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • How can you say a company (stock) is undervalued when they have no earnings just potential?

        Synta is a spec stock, plan and simple. Trying to put a valuation on the stock is futile. If Ganetespib fails in phase III then it will turn out that the stock wasn't undervalued. If it succeeds then who knows where we trade.

        I've been in the stock since 2010, the only thing that matters at this point are the trial results.

      • What will happen then? From shorts side, they know they are on weak side, but will fight hopelessly on slim chance management screw up or other disasters (yes, US default, WWIII, anything could happen). The longs know they are dominating the game now. They can either choose to hold the line and give the shorts more time to exhaust themselves and give in, or they can start a full attack and slay the shorts. The future will depend on who are those shorts, and how good the announcements the company is holding now.

        It is a show. If you have watched the show for over 3 months, you might agree with me. On the first stage, the shorts initiated a full attack but the longs had a strong defense. On the second stage, the longs are holding the line and accumulating more power, while the shorts change from offense to defense. We are almost close to the end of this stage. We need another stage, a third stage of longs attack and shorts surrender. Without a climax, it is not a beautiful show, it is not a masterpiece to be remembered, and it is not worth my time to watch it these days. We will see.

 
SNTA
2.61-0.02(-0.76%)Dec 26 4:00 PMEST

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