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Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. Message Board

  • ivanprokov ivanprokov Oct 28, 2013 1:18 PM Flag

    Eastern European Exclusions

    If you notice out ph2 Dx 6 population went from 178 to 147 with the exclusion of the Eastern Europeans. That was approximately 17.5% of that patient group. That is a lot of noise in our data (the extreme differences in their treatment protocol are clear) that just got dealt with. They indicated that currently those countries represent less than 10% of the Ph3 and if we increase by another 200 patients it will be less than 7%. Additionally they indicated they had improved recruitment procedures in those countries for the Ph3 so the noise will further be reduced.

    The eastern europeans accounted for a 10% increase in hazard ratio. Without them the data is unquestionably strong. The only question is whether you believe management when they say that the Eastern Europeans were true outliers and corrupted the integrity of the results.

    I believe looking at Slide 28 their exclusion is unquestionably justified. I am glad to hear they are considering expanding the size of the trial to minimize that noise.

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    • Bottom line. Data remains strong. Drug works. Bumps in a Ph2 are to be expected. We have another bite at the apple with ultra convincing results in the breast cancer ph2 in December. That is the true catalyst for this stock followed by the Ph3 lung cancer results next year.

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