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Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. Message Board

  • ivanprokov ivanprokov Dec 8, 2013 1:36 AM Flag

    I'm not going to lie

    I'm nervous about how many patients will be OR's. Nobody can know that - but then this would be boring. However, I do know the change in dosing makes a big difference. For dogs that were switched to twice weekly dosing vs once weekly (with the same overall amount of medication) there appears to be a 17-25% greater decrease in tumor size among susceptible tumor types during a 4 week treatment period. That is without the 50% increase in the amount of medication per week that our patients are getting. That can turn those who would be stable disease in 2011 into responders.

    Add to that a lack of patients already treated with multiple lines of therapy and I am liking our chances to hit that magic 40% OR number.

    Its not a lock, but I like our chances of posting those ultra-impressive numbers. We might really have a new monotherapy here that blows people away.

    Nervous and excited :)

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    • Ivan... HOW many presentations are they doing? and what comes out Friday?

      I'm not worried...

      • 1 Reply to waiting4kerx
      • I think the one that matters is Enchant and that is on Thursday morning. The others are your usual preclinical analysis I would bet - though they might reference the Enchant results. I had though that Harvard would also present data, but it appears that was a false hope. The Ongoing Trial presentations only report details of the study design and current recruitment statistics. Never actual data it seems. Given the small number of sites currently recruiting there may actually not have been that much progress on the Fluvorscent combo trial at Harvard - they may be trying to get more sites active.

        This will all come down to answering the question - does dosing twice a week turn Ganetespib into a monster monotherapy agent in breast cancer. My bet is that it does and this will be the first study to prove it.

    • Results that blow expectations out of the water are possible here. The drug has a long half life already (58 hours and maintains a relevant concentration inside tumors for 96 hours or more) and now it will be active for nearly the entire treatment period. Effectively giving almost no time for the proteins to rebound and growth to resume. You take away all growth momentum and you continually bash the tumor with volume losses. It is possible that some of those stable diseases at 12 weeks turn into PRs. I see lots of reasons for this to go very very right in a big way

    • xx369 Dec 9, 2013 2:14 AM Flag

      The option premium show no indication of a major event.

    • Wait, why are people so worried about the conference coming up? They just had an public share offering which raised them enough cash throughout 2014. Then massive insider buying. I'm sure they know the conference will be good, or else why would they buy so much recently? They took the opportunity to buy shares at even a lower cost after the public offering. Then it entered oversold territory at the same time. So if this tanks anymore after this week I will lose faith in logical trading of all stocks.

    • Impossible to know for sure but I like the odds here. This type of investment you have to be ok with the prospects losing 50% of your money if the "gamble" goes south. In reality this is ph2 data and immature data at that so I really don't see a sustained run here but instead am hoping for a "pop" of 20-30% to convert short term calls to longterm calls then I'll just forget about it and look back in a year.

    • I think right now is a good time to be in. Think about it this way. Would you rather be short with a huge position, or long with a huge position. I would die from fright if I were short. GLTY.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I certainly hope that we have ultra-impressive numbers next week. Results that are very strong would put SNTA into a whole new category. The increased level of credibility that would result could promote interest in the HDC platform and valuation of the platform would begin to creep into the overall valuation of the company resulting in much higher pricing of the stock. This next week could be a major pivotal point in SNTA's growth and I hope that the results are great enough to create investor recognition and participation for the long haul.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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