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CEL-SCI Corporation Message Board

  • adamfishstick adamfishstick Apr 26, 2013 9:05 AM Flag

    Today from The Street - Biotech Stock Mailbag:

    Harry B. asks:

    Cel-Sci (CVM_) issued a new statement where it claimed it had recruited 117 patients in its international phase III study and a new CRO [contract research organization] which will contribute $10 million to the study. I would like to know if you could publish your feelings as I highly consider your advices.

    Cel-Sci's update this week on the Multikine head-and-neck cancer study resorted to some serious spin to deflect from the horrible reality that the company and its study are running off the rails.

    Let's do some easy math. The Multikine phase III study began in December 2010, so in 28 months, the company has managed to enroll 117 patients, or 4.2 patients per month.

    Cel-Sci designed the study to enroll 880 patients, so that means the study is still 763 patients short. If the current rate of patient recruitment continues, it will take Cel-Sci 182 months to reach full enrollment. That's 15 years.

    Oof.

    But let's be optimistic and assume Cel-Sci, with two new CROs using that $10 million to pay off doctors and patients to try the Multikine study, triples the pace of enrollment. At this accelerated rate, Cel-Sci will reach full enrollment in five years.

    Of course, Cel-Sci doesn't have enough cash to keep the lights on for 15 years or even five years, which explains this week's spin job. We've seen the movie play out before and it never ends well. There is no interest in Multikine as a treatment for head-and-neck cancer, forcing Cel-Sci to find (buy) patients in remote corners of the globe. At some point, Cel-Sci will give up because recruiting 880 patients is going to be impossible. But of course, Cel-Sci won't admit defeat, the company will simply conjure up some ridiculous excuse for why patient enrollment is being curtailed. No doubt, this excuse will include claims about Multikine demonstrating remarkable healing powers. These claims will be false but Cel-Sci will soldier on because bamboozlement is what the company does best.

    LOL

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