I read Adam's column and note a couple of items. 1-His remark about seeing this movie played over again smacks of what someone on this board posted yesterday. I have NO DOUBT they or their friends are one in the same. So if anyone thinks there's no connection between Adam and his cohorts to the shorts in this stock, I think we have anecdotal evidence.
That said, Adam also uses the math in such a way that reminds me of the says Figures don't lie, but liers can figure. (or something like that)
He compares the rate of enrollment for the 117 patients and merely extends it out as if that's a fair analysis.
Well folks, using an excel spreadsheet is only as good as the data going in.
Clearly the rate of enrollment in the very beginning of the trial was slow, and clearly the rate of enrollment when the former CRO was being acquired was also slow. The rate of enrolment for the first 2 years will NOT be the same going forward. His statement saying 15 years is ridiculous, and even his reduction to 5 years is ridiculous. It's easy to know and use those figures but I don't think it's realistic to only use that rate of enrollment as a basis for future enrollment.
Then, by using 15 years or 5 years, he goes on to write about a lack of cash. But using 5 or 15 years as his basis is very one sided. He should concede the possibility that Ergomed will achieve full enrollment at a much faster pace. But none of that is considered.
I have been a critic of management but at times a long investor.
I applaud intelligent and honest debate. But this article clearly has one agenda.
We'll see how it plays out.
GL to all.
Here's some additional "truth" as reported and for those who haven't, go to the Ergomed site.
Ergomed and Aptiva are adding 60-80 new clinical sites worldwide.
Ergomed operates in Europe, Russia and India.........
CVM presently has 39 clinical sites worldwide.
Therefore, MY assumption is, it may be a bit easier to enroll patients in Europe, Russia and India, especially with a "specialist" CRO who has offices in these areas.
60-80 new sites!!!!!
Do I think enrollment will stay stalled? Nope.
Do I think Adam's timeline of 5-15 years is realistic? Nope.
Is this movie being played over again? I don't think so.
I look forward to hearing the story unfold.
Time will tell but Adam had to post this retraction two years ago.
Cel-Sci: The Multikine Sweet 16
BY Adam Feuerstein| 05/03/11 - 12:09 PM EDT
Update: I stand corrected. My apologies. Cel-Sci has enrolled a single patient into its phase III head-and-neck cancer study of Multikine...
... The original version of this column stated incorrectly that Cel-Sci had not enrolled any patients yet.
I have to concede. The trial has been ongoing for over two years and the rate of enrollment is abysmal. There is no reason to assume it will get better. The first CRO which was praised highly in the beginning has been fired. There isn't any indication of miraculous healing taking place. The scientific community pays no attention to MK. Geert has been misleading in the progress of the trial. The new CRO is not contributing cash to the trial although Geert wants you to believe that. The facility has never been rented out although Geert at one time alluded to that occurring and bringing in revenues. By Geert's own accounting it will be years before the trial is completed. I'm out and may come back if there is significant news disclosed otherwise I'll re examine this in four years. Why tie up dead money for years on a whim.
Why is there 'no reason to assume it will get better'? As the new CROs have a track record of being associated with other candidate drugs that have completed enrollment - why not work under the assumption that progress will be made from here out?
I must tell you, as an investor, I LOVE hearing capitulation.
I believe MANY gave up and that's obviously why the PPS was as low as 21c.
Management bought for the first time in ages, and didn't buy for a 'tax loss".
I have to go now and will see the end of day.
But GL to you.
" The new CRO is not contributing cash to the trial although Geert wants you to believe that."
NOBODY led the public to believe Ergomed was contributing anything but services. How can you make such a statement?
After the air clears, it'll be up to Ergomed and management at CelSci to continue the transparency they finally achieved with this recent PR.
They must keep the investors up to date on the process.
If they are true to their word and add the additional sites and publicize significant milestones in enrollment, investors will be amply rewarded.
For the time being, we are in a washing machine. They will manipulate gyrations in the PPS. But remember, these gyrations (for the average investor) are small in terms of dollars.
And present an occasional opportunity to add and trade/or hold, averaging up.
So long as the trend continues, there is no alarm bell going off in my camp. And one day doesn't make any trend,let alone a few hours.
Not that I'm betting on it, but if this ends near flat or in the green..........I will toast tonight to "The FREAK'N INTERNET".
Without material news this is and has always been a lame duck. geert is famous for being a spin artist as he offers lot's of gravy but no meat.
He needs to answer two questions:
1. How long is the trial expected to take.
2. At what point will be manufacturing faciility be available to contract out.