Looking through the last quarterly report and the year to year decline for the quarter in terms of EBITDA, I am not so sure this will soar. Latin America is not the greatest protector of property rights when it comes to foreign owners like this company. Very little money in profits with food crops at the highest price levels over the last couple of years in comparison to these crops over the last decade. In addition, the appraisal of the land holdings of the corporation did not increase all that much. Better commodity plays out there than this one. Try energy, gold, fertilizer, silver.
I am on the other side of your trade, and accumulating below $8.00. Historic EBITDA has been poor but impacted by hedging/ accounting losses and last years drought. I think next report will have hedging/ accounting gains and will be more reflective of the earnings power of the assets. Energy prices remain relatively high globally and will support the push into ethanol/sugar production. Low grain stocks will support prices at attractive levels for the next year even if the US manages to come up with a good crop this year. Investment in productive farm land does need to include the appreciation of the land and that is not likely to decline but rather go up about 3%+ per year supported by global population growth and the increasing use of productive farm land to produce energy and materials. I agree there are political risks here and that is contributing to depressing the price currently. But I believe the risk is more on the side of tax increases rather than property rights (although this is a tail risk), and will be manageable. I like buying productive farm land at less than historic cost basis, particularly when the cost basis is a fraction of the appraised value confirmed by recent transactions and a much smaller faction of equivalent land in the US. Just need to soak up the secondary shares, get some resolution to Argentina's political/ fiscal problems and a little rain. IMHO