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Ship Finance International Limited Message Board

  • I think it is time to look @ nti/aldw again. I have a hard time believing that these stocks will not rise in price with a divy over 10%. Look at arlp it usually settles in in the 6-9% divy range (not to mention the best coal company out there) As far as the reference on RINS. There is a war going on right now between oil/grocery manufactors and the bio fuel industry that will be settled before oct. If the bio fuel industry can hold on for a few more months e-15 will be here for good. Which in turn will help support agriculuture around the world.

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    • today, NTI was downgraded from buy to hold. I'm good with that since while holding I'll get a very substantial distribution.

    • Hello Message board--This was on another message board and to good to waste--Best to all -good analysis on NTI earning!!!!!!!!!---The Sarge.........

      {Yes, earnings report, told me that I don't know what I need to know about refiners. There are so many variables. They didn't explain this exactly, but it appears that the drop in refining margins from Q3 was due to lower prices for gasoline. I guess this makes sense - if gasoline drops 10 or 20 cents per gallon in the winter (certainly this does not happen where I live, but maybe in Minnesota, people don't drive much in the winter), that's a drop of probably $ 4 or $ 5 in the refining margin, depending on what % gasoline you produce. So let's see what I need to track - there's the WTI-Brent spread; the CWS-WTI spread, the NDL-WTI spread; what percentage heavy oil the refinery can use in a Q; what price the refiner gets for its production, which means not only the wholesale price of gasoline, but also diesel, distillates, asphalt and whatever; the price of RINs and how many the refinery needs; the weather in Minnesota, and who knows what else. And next Q I'll learn some other inputs I needed to know, but only after the knowledge would have been useful..

      What I did learn is that in Q1 NTI will build up inventory so it can continue to sell product during the turnaround. Good for Q2, because sales won't be eliminated during April. Not so good for Q1 because sales will probably drop 5% or a bit more while the inventory builds. CS says they expect the 2013 distribution to be about $ 3.60 for a 12% current yield. they think CVRR's yield will be several points higher in 2013, but over the longer term, they think NTI is a better investment. Of course, CS was one of the underwriters for NTI's 2 offerings in the last year, so I'm sure they're really objective.

    • Why play around with NTI when u can have CVRR @ 17% and HEAVY insider buying

    • NTI was down big today, but I'm still up over 20 %. Down 10 % in ARR and up 35 % in NCT. As they say, win some, lose some....

      Stagg, glad you made some money in ARR and have cash to spend elsewhere. I'm not hoping, I do believe ARR will climb back some , it may take a while and not get to 7, then I'll decide what to do with it and collect the 12 % didvidend while I wait.

    • Everyone should read the NTI earnings transcript on Seeking Alpha. They addressed a question on the ethanol credits and answered that there effect will be priced in at the consumer level (i.e. that means gas is going up at the retail level). Anyway, this shows how when someone wants to do a hit piece on a sector or stock, they can and investors are quick to jump ship. Sometimes there is fire when there's smoke, but sometimes these are head fakes. I'd rather not get overexposed to one sector, so I'll have to compare the relative merits of ALDW, NTI and CVRR as far as divy yields, technicals etc.

11.79+1.48(+14.35%)Feb 12 4:02 PMEST