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Ship Finance International Limited Message Board

  • marklibera marklibera Jul 2, 2013 5:46 PM Flag

    Lull before next storm?

    I don't know. The market recovered and rallied right back up to the downtrend. We will see if the employment numbers cooperate tomorrow and Friday. ALDW getting killed. Glad I sold. Didn't get the bounce I hoped for in MTGE and ARR so I should exit. This can happen, you don't get the expected bounce, but you try to stay patient and then end up being a trapped long. Now problems in Egypt and Portugal again. Could that be the excuse for stocks to sell off, but this time safety money returns to Treasuries?

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    • Mark, like you ,sold ALDW about 10 days ago with a profit and nice dist. Trapped in LINE though. Only solace is my cost is $17.

      Regards,

      Bob

    • mark,
      ALDW and CVRR did not like the talk about the shrunken Brent/WTI spread but the trend has still has to be favorable long term. Q2 is historically the low point of global oil demand so Brent is going to be cheaper and meanwhile the gal on MF was talking about Enbridge's pipeline problems inhibiting the flow of Canadian crude into the US and pushing up the price of WTI. But Q3 and Q4 are the period of highest oil demand and domestic oil production will continue to grow and keep WTI prices under control. I see NTI and CLMT were less affected which makes sense because they are not using primarily Canadian and Bakken crude (I think). I may go for NTI tomorrow. Their crack spread had to be good for Q2. Gasoline prices in our area were among the highest in the country for about two months as some capacity was shutdown at refineries in Illinois and Indiana such at gasoline was being diverted from other refineries in the upper Midwest. So, I have a hunch NTI will surprise. As far as CVRR and ALDW, you buy a variable distribution MLP and you get... a variable distribution. Hope to make it up in Q3and Q4, however.

      As usual, what I lack in facts I make up for with opinions.

    • folks,

      Some stuff going on seems independent of the larger picture. I had a good day yesterday because TOO and TRGP were up over 3% each. I saw no news or explanation. Dividend increase? Upgrade? Setting the stage for a secondary? Who knows? Bad day for me today mostly because of GLNG, my largest holding by quite a bit. If it goes to $30 I will probably buy more. Ahead on my BRY trade today. Can't be worried about oil. The trend is up.

    • mark...investing is not easy, we got a nice rally for one week and then a sell-off today...I agree with you, we are now probably 'at the new break point' in the markets...you know that I am afraid of oil and natural gas stocks, but who would have thought that LINE would do such a major sell-off today (???)...

      FRO made a rally today because traders feel that if the Suez Canal would get shut off that it would be good for FRO (tanker shipping rates would increase)...however, it would also be good for SFL because of profit sharing (and SFL went down today)...these are weird markets...

      We all know that the markets will hit new highs (someday), the trick is to figure out when it will happen and who the major players will be at that time..! $tagg...!

      • 1 Reply to staggman99
      • stagg, LINE has been written about extensively in Barron's. The risks were identified. Whether it turns out to be a major buying opportunity or a last chance exit remains to be seen depending on the outcome. There are plenty of examples with other stocks where they went south or where they recovered.
        I don't agree about the inevitability of new market highs. There is a cyclical nature to the market, with previous highs in 2000, 2007 and recently. What event will push the market higher that has not already been discounted? Corporate profits and margins have already recovered and are at highs. The normalized 10 year p/e ratio is no longer in the undervalued range. Interest rates already hit bottom. The politicians aren't going to address our longer term problems because the pressure is off now that the market is near a high and the economy is no longer in a downward spiral. The global world still has huge problems, in Asia, the Middle East and Europe. I could be wrong, but I don't think this is the goldilocks environment. It is true that the market climbs a wall of worry, but it can also overreact to these worries as it did back in 2011 and 2012. I would rather wait for the larger selloff to come. Perhaps I am overly influenced by the history of the crash in 1987, when I stepped in to buy with the market down 200 points on the Dow (the Dow was much lower than) only to see it crash over 500 points by the end of the same day. As Jeff Cooper says, the second mouse gets the cheese.

 
SFL
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