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Ship Finance International Limited Message Board

  • staggman99 staggman99 Jul 16, 2013 11:00 AM Flag

    $50 oil by year end...???

    Board members...Joe Petrowki (Gulf Oil CEO) predicted on CNBC Monday that Oil will hit $50 a barrel by the end of the year, due to a over supply of it.....I 'strongly disagree' because it cost almost that much to produce it...he also predicted a crack spread of about $15 a barrel in the future (???)....

    However, I do feel that oil prices may drop (???), 'but not near $50 a barrel', and that will probably be good for refineries because oil will still need to be refined into useable products and and opinion is, that it may be time to look at companies that would profit from 'a lower price' in oil or fuel (railroads, trucking and etc.)...! $tagg...!

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    • Dear Board members

      Today I herd a prognostication of oil dropping by $30 per barrel.
      Based on the discovery of an oil field in Australia --it is supposed to be HUGE, as big as the Saudi field is
      Billions of barrels!!!!!!!!! wow

      I do not know what to believe as to oil pricing: but China did report 7% growth so China is going to be consuming lots of commodities, IMHO Gold oil copper should start to go up in price.

      • 1 Reply to madmax_194752
      • Wonder what scenario would get oil to get to $50? Canadian heavy sour crude has been in that range not too long ago, but WTI will have to get going to reach $50 by the end of the year since August oil is now over $100. The 3rd and 4th quarters are also the period of highest demand every year.

        Investment wise, I do think the trend favors certain sectors... midstream, refining, drilling are my bets, as a safer way to capitalize on growing energy consumption.

    • There are always commentators who either say that oil is going to $150 or to $50. I think both are wrong. At $150, it would choke the global economy. At $50, it would choke the Middle East, not to mention dissuade all the greens from buying hybrids.

      There are plenty of comments about China's growth slowing as they try to restrain their own credit induced bubble. Saw a comment yesterday that said nothing will happen in Europe until after the election in Germany in September. Who really knows, but like during the period of 2004-2007 for housing, everyone seems to be sensing a bubble due to low interest rates. We just don't know what will flip the switch and when.

    • I certainly hope they give their guests blood tests before they appear. That guy must have been on something.

      • 1 Reply to bobdbeck
      • that would be quite a drop. I dont think a barrel of oil has been at or under 60 in the last ten years. You would need the USD to increase significantly in value, demand would have to fall off a cliff as in, no one needs to drive to work, supply would have to increase and all geo politcal issues would have to be resolved nearly over night. Opec, the oil cartel, is pretty good about cutting production to protect the price of oil, while we are not quite as dependent on their oil as in the past they still have about 75-80% of the worlds oil reserves. there would have to be a perfect storm of events to get to 50 in 6 months. It is interesting that the CEO of Gulf has that low of a prediction on the value of oil in that short of a time frame. Gas prices in my area are up 30 cents a gallon in less then a week. Yesterday, I went to the gym and in the time it takes for me to work out and shower it was up 5 cents yesterday. Serves me right for putting it off until after the gym.

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