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LIN TV Corp. Message Board

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Jul 25, 2011 2:04 PM Flag


    I am seriously thinking of taking my almost $2 a share gain on SBGI and moving it to TVL. A $1 move in TVL is equal to almost a $3 move in SBGI. I see TVL exceeding revenue projections by 1-3 million dollars and EPS of 10 cents. Good chance we will get announcement of revolver getting renewed past November and I think a 30-40% chance of dividend this quarter or next. DaninFW

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    • The huge FCF/Share is the exact reason why I've been buying TVL. I've been swapping out of NXST and SBGI for TVL. The reason that TVL trades at such a discount is the JV. The JV is a dopey structure where TVL is on the hook for the note, but the assets guarantee the note. Comcast owns 80% and TVL owns 20%. Those JV's don't have any retrans revenue, and they should be getting $20-$35m in retrans pretty soon. The market is assuming that TVL is going to cut Comcast a big check to just take the stations (to get out of obligation of the note). I don't see that happening with the new retrans coming in (I think the stations will be worth more than the note, erasing TVL's obligation). If TVL doesn't like the price that Comcast wants they could just say no and the status quo stays the same. They don't have to do anything until 2023, and their is no reverse retrans. Long way of saying, as market multiples improve TVL gets a double whammy affect and the market discount goes away.