I was thinking last night and the fact the election this year was 11-06-12. The 2008 election was 11-04-08 and the 2010 election was 11-03-08. I may have them backwards since I didn't write it down. But the point is that this election year we have at least 2-3 days more political revenue than the last 2 election cycles. That alone is good enough for an extra 2-3%+ in total revenues when we get to the 4th quarter where it will hit. Also, consider as of today we have over 2/3 of this quarter in the bank and they should know within days within 1% of what revenues will be this quarter. If we could get an update on increased projections from any of the broadcasters we could rock. However, if history repeats it may be time to get out of this sector in next 30-60 days. We should see a nice runup prior to next EPS reports but I don't see much upside after that. Doesn't matter that they are doing better than ever. We then go into next year with hard numbers to beat after Q1 and Q2. I don't see this sector crashing as we haven't really performed as we should have in the first place. We also have BLC that should announce a dividend increase after 1st of year and GTN with a refi between now and then. After the market sees the synergies from the TVL and SBGI acquisitions that could be a catalyst for next leg up. Hopefully by the end of 2013 we also see some better estimates for what spectrum may be worth for this sector. I just don't see much action in this sector after November till just before mid-year 2013. JMHO DaninFW
I don't know, these stocks never ran this year, so their was no election trade. I think we will see more M&A next year, higher retrans, and more dividend returns. TVL will continue to buy back as much stock as they possibly can, then they will do a dividend. SBGI will increase their dividend, so will BLC. NXST will also announce a dividend early next year as well. I don't think these names trade at north of 6% dividend next year, despite the lack of political. The divi's are putting floors on the stock.