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Nintendo Co. Ltd. Message Board

  • ellensprophet ellensprophet Mar 14, 2008 8:13 AM Flag

    2009 earnings estimates

    Checking around, the estimates for Nintendo's earnings in 2009 are fairly low (for example: http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/estimates.asp?symbol=7974.OS). For example, the median estimated EPS for 2008 is around 2200 Y, while the median estimate for 2009 is "only" about 2700 Y. Given Nintendo has managed to double annual earning recently, this could account for some part of the stock's sluggishness.
    Digging around, there seems to be many concrete reasons that Nintendo's earnings in 2009 could be around 3200-3700 Y/S. Reasons I found for Nintendo's earnings to stop roaring are the PS3 will displace the Wii, the Wii attach rate is low, the DS and Wii game line up is crap, and so forth. None of these seem valid to me. The PS3 as a blue ray player theory seems weak to me because the xbox will also have a blue ray player and there will be plenty of blue ray players out soon. The PSP does have some great games (Patapon seems innovative and fun), but the DS is entrenched already. It seems as if the game lineup is strong and Wiifit will sell like crazy. Summer should be great for Nintendo sales.
    If Nintendo announces a FY 2009 estimate in the range of 3200-3700 Y/S it seems to me that the stock should roar ahead. Even if the dollar drops another 10%, that would not come to more than 100 yen per share in lost earnings, which would leave Nintendo with strong growth YOY. Also Nintendo does not need to cut the dollar price of it’s products, while it can adjust euro based prices to compete with the Xbox and PS3 if they are a problem.
    All in all, I think the report in April could lead to Nintendo giving earnings estimates for 2009 that are much higher than the analysts’ are.
    Anyone have thoughts?

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