I can understand the depression that we are in and all but for a company with no debt and complete domination over the markets, this is ridiculous! Anyone hear any more word about the potential 09 stock split?
Dude, I posted my "BS" as you call it on Dec 17th 2007. Look it up. The stock was in the 70's and I said the peaks were behind it. Guess what? They were.
And now the stock is up 12.5% in Japan, and I'm pretty annoyed, having not managed to buy any earlier today. Oh well, maybe there'll be another opportunity, as the world heads for meltdown.
Dow may fall tomorrow, once the interest rate cut has been absorbed and dismissed by the market.
I don't know who ridiculed you near the top it sure as hell wasn't me. I remember you saying that when NTDOY just started this MB and the stock was in the 50s and rallied nearly 30 points from after you said all that BS and I posted all my sells in the 70s as well as a buy at 55 when the stock tanked after excellent earnings, then I sold the shares at 75 again. Held some that I planned on holding long term, but saw the market setting up for a crash and sold the rest in the mid 60s.
However, this stock is way oversold and has excluded billions in profits that the stock has made over the last 2 years since it's trading where it was shortly after the Wii release. Not to mention the number 1 selling console and games from the DS.
I remember both of you, actually. Back when the board was first up, and Pchiz from the Sony board before the board went up. I got out around the same time as you I think Pchiz except I was a little lower like 67. I do think this is cheap right now. Nintendo hedges against currency fairly heavily this may help with short term strength of the yen. Also remember that the company is sitting on a huge stack of yen in the bank as the yen increases so does the value of the cash they have in the bank. Also nintendo has no leverage, this is rare for a japanese company. If my EPAX has good earnings tomorrow I think I will move some funds back to NTDOY.
Hey there. Remember me? I was widely scorned on this forum for claiming NTDOY's stock had peaked last year, and that a historic look at their price would see 2007 as the year of NTDOY's big spike.
When I was saying all this, however, I assumed that the Wii would eventually fade from glory. Guess I underestimated the little guy. Not even MGS4 or GTA4 could shake the Wii's lead. I also said that piracy would start to cut into the DS's profits, and I think that happened, but the new model has addressed this issue with the downloadable function.
Neither Sony nor MS have shown any real success in reaching the casual gamer. Bluray won the format war, but it turned out it was a war over which format would die quickest, not which would surpass DVD.
This xmas, MS should do well, and they may even take market share from Nintendo. Lots of quality titles coming out, and MS has been aggressive in their price cutting. But for the moment, the Wii is selling out month after month, so no worries.
Yes, the dollar is strong but the yen is insane. This is the BIG bear factor here. UK, European and American revenues are severely impacted. So if NTDOY doesn't warn, it's because they've been so conservative on guidance. I find it hard to believe they won't warn - I mean in the UK, the yen has gone from 250 / GBP at the peak to around 145 now. Even the mighty dollar has fallen by 15% since August against the yen.
I'm not an economist, so I don't know what Japan can do to weaken the yen. Can they just print more money? I have no idea. If the yen can weaken, then NTDOY becomes a fantastic buy at these levels. But if the dollar collapses and the Euro/GBP fall further, well that won't be pretty.
By the way, if you think NTDOY's fall has been dramatic, it ain't nothin compared to the Japanese stock - which is down from 73,200 to 24,400 last night. Ouch.
I'm currently on the sidelines, but the stock price and the yield are looking pretty tempting.
Then again, maybe I should stock up on tinned soup, candles and cigarettes instead!
Yes, it is very ridiculous that NTDOY is about to go under 30 where it was when the Wii was released.. I actually originally bought NTDOY just over 30/share Feb. 07. Thank God I sold them all.
It seems "investors" have forgotten all about the sales from the best selling console; the Nintendo DS and even 2nd place seller the Wii. Also, the Nintendo Wii and DS sell more games than any other system due to their much higher customer bases and a flood of hit (fun) games. All these billions of dollars that have been made have been met with virtually 0 gain on the stock since 2 years ago when the Wii was released and the DS and Wii have dominated hardware and software sales in a booming industry.
I have not re-bought my shares in NTDOY yet since I sold around 65 (sold 2/3 at 75), but if this nears 30 I would be tempted to take out a 2nd mortgage on my home to buy NTDOY stock.. The only thing that truly scares me is not the recession, but hyper inflation caused by monetizing a Trillion dollars of debt to buy "toxic" debt. and insanely low interest rates and now talk of giving Americans billions more in printed (monetized) debt.
From both a gamer and investor perspective, Nintendo probably has one of the best value out there:
1. Leading/growing hardware sales and future software sales growth based on large installed base.
2. A Forward P/E of less than 10. And Nintendo usually gives conservative guidance so there's a lot of cushion. In addition, in September when everyone is slowing Nintendo's products are still growing at double digit.
3. Strong balance sheet. That means a lot for current days.
However, even though I bought around 40 I recognize that my loss of ~10% in two days is partially logical due to a strengthening yen. If you look at Nintendo's AR, they had huge gain/loss on foreign currency due to 80% of its sales is from foreign country. And for Euro, I believe it's declining even faster against the Yen. Anyone has any insight or analysis on how this will affect the profit of the company? I've seen a view before that for every $1 Yen is to strengthen/weaken, the stock will tick down/up 1%. So a ~5% decrease for the past two days is warrented; the rest of the decline (~7%) may be attributed to market panic and presents good opportunity.
Due to the exchange rate concern my current view on the stock is a buy. If I can clear this out then it's a no-brainer strong buy.
I'm also putting in a low stink bid which likely won't hit. The strength of the yen is worrisome though. Nintendo's latest profit estimates were based on a USD to JPY of 105, and the ratio has dropped to a little over 93. Of course this is due to panic, but unless it corrects, Nintendo's profit estimates will need to be revised lower.
It's funny, less than a year ago everyone was sounding the "everything's ok" alarm, and just when things are so bad that they have to admit it (as a matter of fact, they just said it will get worse), you have investors that are looking for it to bottom out in the near future... if some companies are now worth less than their assets and cash did the market overreact? If you factor in common sense, yes, of course... but just like the media, the market is not grounded in reality, as a matter of fact I am now aware that there is no such thing as a correction, just fear, greed, computers, and a sea of investors, officials, and analysts that have no business making any decisions or predictions in the first place, let alone in the market. If Buffett's investments go bust any shred of greed left will go along with it, and we might actually be treated to the sight of empty bridges and a book he actually writes.
But I digress... fear, greed, and now computers are market forces, yes, but what happened to love?
Hard to say why Nintendo moves independently of the market.
Earnings are at the end of this month? The Tresurary and Fed are going ot inject $50B into the credit markets at the end of October too, which should boost the US? Maybe there is news that is being leaked to select friends? Maybe everyone has changed their minds and love the new DS now? Some Shiek in Arabia saw a Wii and decided to buy stock? Ballmer has finally decided to "innovate" and just buy Nintendo to get started?