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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

  • justsearchingforagooddeal justsearchingforagooddeal May 12, 2008 4:02 PM Flag

    Brk-B down more than 20% now...

    I invested 4 shares in brk-b, buying in at 4900, 4800, 4600, and 4400. I'm so sick and tired of this terrible stock. I have lost so much money in this stock and am getting pissed off.

    I'm afraid that by the time this stock starts to recover, something else is gonna happen...ie buffet will finally leave the company or worse, and this will cause the stock to plummet again. Will this stock ever go back up to, like 4500$ again? Is it possible? I just wanna sell my shares once the loss isn't too harsh, because god knows what it's doing. Even on days where EVERYTHING is up, this is the only stock thats down, and it is really getting to me.

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    • Here is my game:
      20x$3600
      5 sold at $4500
      holding the other 75%
      if at $4K we brooch $3.9K, I will either sell or triple down.
      not sure. I like WEB for a long term hold however these times
      make that a difficult strategy, although, I know overall it is the right decision to park some cash here.

    • Go on margin and double-down, don't be a wuss!

      But didn't you know, "only losers average losers".

      Or maybe "sell down to the sleeping point" instead..

      Sheesh, why does everyone that enters the stock market think they have a God-given right to free money, and if doesn't arrive in two weeks, they will whine and whine like little bitches..

      • 1 Reply to stndimmclate2
      • I am a long term investor, but I do stick fairly faithfully to the 7% rule. I sold BRK several weeks ago when I was down 7% on it. Obviously, I bought in too high.

        I have lots of faith in WB, however, I treat it like any other investment I make...Down 7 or 8%, and I am out. I was also overweight in it, due to having purchase a fair bit of FAIRX a while back.

        For now I have enough BRK exposure through FAIRX, but I will be watching for a re-entry point when this selling shakes out.

    • I would like to make some observations about Berkshire Hathaway's recent stock price declines that seem to have many message board investors somewhat worried:

      1. Historically, BRK stock has moved up and down a lot; in part, due to its mass size. But when Warren has struck, like Iscar and Mormon, he only adds very select and very profitable private companies. Compared to the major banks, and brokerage houses, that have been caught up in scandals,creditor problems, and SEC inquiries for years and years ad infinitem. I feel infinitely more secure owning my 3 Class A shares of BRK than I would anything else. So, indeed, once you buy even one share of BRK Class B, never, never contemplate selling that precious share or shares!!!

      2. It is not the fault of Berkshire's management that the stock in falling. It is more attributable to the short-term investors who don't understand that Berkshire is not meant to be treated as such. Its very investment methodology is directed to get "truly interested" and "truly committed" to purchase 1, 10 or 1000 shares of BRK.A &/or BRK.B. It will utlimately go back up to 5000+ (B shares) when overall stock market conditions improve.

      3. BRK is NOT going broke. BRK must pay a lot in advertising fees so we can all watch the GEICO lizard or the caveman on their insurance advertisements. No presidential political war chest will ever have that kind of cash on hand. As you know, large cash is what enables a great company to continue to plan company buyouts instead of paying creditors.

      4. Warren and Charlie Munger are now in a "holding pattern" from my read of events at the annual meeting. True, BRK is such a large economy of scale investment operation that they do not have the ability to make small company acquisitions, etc. in the domestic American economy RIGHT NOW. However, it is thought very likely they will be going to Europe next year to find great family buys in the likely places of Germany, France, United Kingdom or even Russia or Central Europe. Warren has a fascinating and ingenius ability in ascertaining where great business opportunities exist.

      5. Berksire and Warren are in the process of preparing for his eventual departure and replacement by a great team of new company managers. Thus, Berkshire will continue to prosper during the remaining days of Warren's leadership (and Charlie Munger's too) as well as beyond. And every kind of investment he advocated Berkshire stay out of, like technology, has furthermore enabled BRK to do well despite the general markets declines of the past year.

      6. Berkshire currently owns over 70 "stand alone" companies, which means that each must reach specific profit and performance objectives in order to be considered "quality" acquisitions worthy enough to be part of the "elite" BH organization. Berkshire in turn has generated over $40 BN in cash from their operations that they are having to find new very highly profitable enterprises to invest that money on. Unlike other conglomerates,BH is hardly having to deal with matters of corporate debt debt and downsizing and spinoffs of its major subsidiaries and companies like GE is its Appliance division in order to cut debt.

      In sum, Berkshire Hathaway is a fabulous company. It is organized and established to withstand the ravages of a not so prosperous economy and thereby continue to make profitable business dealings which can make a lot of money for the wise and patient investor.

    • View all Topics | View all Messages < Newer Topic | Older Topic >
      Re: Brk-B down more than 20% now... 12-May-08 09:24 pm

      I would like to make some observations about Berkshire Hathaway's recent stock price declines that seem to have many message board investors somewhat worried:

      1. Historically, BRK stock has moved up and down a lot; in part, due to its mass size. But when Warren has struck, like Iscar and Mormon, he only adds very select and very profitable private companies. Compared to the major banks, and brokerage houses, that have been caught up in scandals,creditor problems, and SEC inquiries for years and years ad infinitem. I feel infinitely more secure owning my 3 Class A shares of BRK than I would anything else. So, indeed, once you buy even one share of BRK Class B, never, never contemplate selling that precious share or shares!!!

      2. It is not the fault of Berkshire's management that the stock in falling. It is more attributable to the short-term investors who don't understand that Berkshire is not meant to be treated as such. Its very investment methodology is directed to get "truly interested" and "truly committed" to purchase 1, 10 or 1000 shares of BRK.A &/or BRK.B. It will utlimately go back up to 5000+ (B shares) when overall stock market conditions improve.

      3. BRK is NOT going broke. BRK must pay a lot in advertising fees so we can all watch the GEICO lizard or the caveman on their insurance advertisements. No presidential political war chest will ever have that kind of cash on hand. As you know, large cash is what enables a great company to continue to plan company buyouts instead of paying creditors.

      4. Warren and Charlie Munger are now in a "holding pattern" from my read of events at the annual meeting. True, BRK is such a large economy of scale investment operation that they do not have the ability to make small company acquisitions, etc. in the domestic American economy RIGHT NOW. However, it is thought very likely they will be going to Europe next year to find great family buys in the likely places of Germany, France, United Kingdom or even Russia or Central Europe. Warren has a fascinating and ingenius ability in ascertaining where great business opportunities exist.

      5. Berksire and Warren are in the process of preparing for his eventual departure and replacement by a great team of new company managers. Thus, Berkshire will continue to prosper during the remaining days of Warren's leadership (and Charlie Munger's too) as well as beyond. And every kind of investment he advocated Berkshire stay out of, like technology, has furthermore enabled BRK to do well despite the general markets declines of the past year.

      6. Berkshire currently owns over 70 "stand alone" companies, which means that each must reach specific profit and performance objectives in order to be considered "quality" acquisitions worthy enough to be part of the "elite" BH organization. Berkshire in turn has generated over $40 BN in cash from their operations that they are having to find new very highly profitable enterprises to invest that money on. Unlike other conglomerates,BH is hardly having to deal with matters of corporate debt debt and downsizing and spinoffs of its major subsidiaries and companies like GE is its Appliance division in order to cut debt.

      In sum, Berkshire Hathaway is a fabulous company. It is organized and established to withstand the ravages of a not so prosperous economy and thereby continue to make profitable business dealings which can make a lot of money for the wise and patient investor.

    • Dude, you entered at the wrong point. That's why you lost money in it.

      I look to get in at around 4k.

    • Doug Kass feeds off investors like you.

      Be patient. I know that is easier said than done.

      The cream (BRK) always rises to the top.

    • I believe the pressure on the stock is because of the Gates foundation requirement to sell 500K.

      • 4 Replies to maxdoggg
      • The 500k shares Gates is selling is just the first installment of the 10 million shares he will have to sell. That's more shares than there were total B's outstanding before the gift. The selling pressure will increase from where it is now, and last a decade.

        B's are worth at least $5k now, very realistically, but probably won't sell for that for awhile because of:

        1. Gates compelled to sell - and nobody compelled to buy
        2. Buffett's secret succession plan, whatever it is
        3. The economy in general, and insurance/financial/bldg supply sectors specifically, especially GenRe.
        4. GenRe legal still not resolved
        5. Age of other big, long-term holders with their own estate issues (incl Munger, but also others)
        6. Pressure on funds (Weitz?) to unload to cover redemptions.
        7. When Buffett does finally kick off, there will be a short-term panic, and everyone knows it. But when? So some buyers will wait. And wait.

        Derivative income will be way up in Q2, instead of down as in Q1. At least $1 billion ($2.6 Billion imprvement over last qtr).
        Marmon earnings will start to help.

        IV will grow, nonetheless, and when it get to $10k/share in a few years, BRKB will double to $8k. All of a sudden, as in the past. Until then, flat.

        The problem always is, nobody tells you when it's going to finally run up. Even the pros get left behind.

      • WEB gives the stock to Gates F; GatesF is a continuing longterm seller, for non-fundamental reasons; WEB becomes enthralled with his celebrity status and near-daily exposure. Everybody wanted to buy the stock recently.
        Signs of the topping process abound elsewhere. Buying the stock is buying only a stock, rather than this company.
        Sellers are motivated by the clicheed fears.
        Values will likely improve, but stock price will not necessarily reflect that at all times. It's a thermometer.
        There will be a fine buying opportunity someday.
        When?
        After Cramer and CNBC have stopped the tout.
        After the insurance business improves again.
        Etc.
        Buy and hold is fine, as long as one can stomach downward volatility and fluctuation.
        Tough sledding for Berkshire for the foreseeable future.
        What should I buy to replace it?
        What's cheap (aside from, arguably, Berkshire) and true value with value focus?
        Or is this just a bellweather telling us that value is over for now?
        What is true value now?

      • Is it possible to find more info on their selling requirements? Obviously they could have a never ending drag on the stock's price.

      • It appears that there are few true longs here - or at least few who've mentioned anything to that effect. Even a year of holding yields ~12.3%, perhaps a little better or worse if you DCA'd into it. (As of midday on 05.15.08, this is performance in excess of 18.2% better than the SPY.)

        A day? A week? A month?

        "Play" or "trade" something else: you're doing so in BRK.A/B is completely antithetical to the investing principles of Mssrs. Buffett and Munger.

    • first of all why would u keep buying every time the stock went down 100 bucks and why would u buy so high track this stock years b4 it was always this highand goes low in may and up im dec im try 2 be nice god bless hold and wait youll get your money back and some

    • I sympathize with justsearch. This has been very frustrating to own, as it relentlessly drops, especially when the market is doing well. But over long periods this stock does just OK, not counting the sixties and seventies when it was great.

    • Bye... bye...

      If you can’t handle the up/Good and the down/Bad – this is not for you.

      Best to all LONGS!!!

    • View More Messages
 
BRK-B
127.20+0.05(+0.04%)Apr 23 4:01 PMEDT

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