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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

  • waddawhat2002 waddawhat2002 Jan 28, 2009 8:41 PM Flag

    Is anybody more Bearish on the market than I am?

    I believe we are going to go through times was haven't seen in 70 years.

    The excesses of the "roaring" twenties were followed by over a decade worth of pain and then followed by a world war killing tens of millions of people.

    The generations that followed these horrible times were spenders.... spend spend spend spend.

    People in America have been spending more money than they make for DECADES!

    Those money savers that lived through the last mess and save their money are looked at like out of touch with reality senile old foggies.


    I think we are going to go through at a good half to full decade full of pain, where economic nature takes it course and all of these student loans, home equity loans, credit card debts, spend crazy shopping channels go amuck and people start going back to the basics.

    By the time this whole thing ends, Maybe around 2017, thrift will be cool.

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    • Interesting prediction from you back in 2009. Right about the half-to-full decade of pain, wrong about the bear market.

    • Looks like the original post is correct, the DEPRESSION wages on. We've had 19 months of Obama and still no end to the recession despite trillions in stimulus. They might want to call it a "double dip", but I didn't remember them ever announcing the recession was over. Sort of like how it took them so long to announce we are in a recession in the first place. The PR assault wages on.

      If you took away the generational low mortgage rates, the FHA loans, the no down loans, phoney and fraudie back stopping 99% or mortgages housing would be even lower. The Economy sucks. We need 100,000 jobs just to stay even due to immigration and college kids graduation, but we can't generate jobs with a socialistic government making more regulations and making labor more expensive. Small businesses are scared to hire with all of these restrictions and incentives not to hire. Obama spent too much time on a health care take over while the economy was burning.

      Oh, and the thing most people are still coming around to learn is deflation. DE flation. The money supply actually shrunk even with Banana Ben printing money like a mad man. The reason? Fractional reserve banking and the fact the banks were hoarding cash and not lending. Ben could hand money to banks, but he can't force banks to lend and borrowers to borrow.

    • party on dudes

    • You are already starting to see some of that social unrest.

      Pirates taking hostages, protests in Europe, The military in Mexico brought in to stop killings, The French bullying CEOs and taking prisoners, riots in south America, the middle east in dissary as usual... shooting sprees in America and soon to be more increased crime.

      Unemployment is creeping up to 10% with no end is sight....

      but you are buying this "rally"??????

    • No, 'W' gets enough flack from the other letters, no need to jump in. As for spending, it was mostly 'off-budget', so it really doesn't count as spending.

    • I'm just curious: did you make fun of President Bush's name, and criticize his spending?

    • In case no one noticed, Wall St. has declare the Great Recession over. I was wrong about a prolonged recession and slumping market. We should see the Dow at 10,000 be the end of the month, 15,000 by mid summer and easily 20,000 be the end of the year. Forget the lost decade scenario, it will only be a year or two pause at best. The economy will roaring back to more than make up for the year or so of doldrums.

    • Now we have the Frogs and Germans telling Obama that he is spending too much at the G-20, if that isn't a role reversal, I don't know what is. Oh, but Michelle " the racist" Obama had such a cute outfit on, she looked so presidental...

      The WSJ had an excellent story about how long it would take to return to the level we were at before...

      If we had outstanding 18% returns, it would take 4 years, but in reality we'd be more likely to get 11% market returns for 9 years.... Not something investors want to hear of, a lost decade.

      Even during the great depression there were rallies, even 50% rallies, that didn't mean the crisis was over.

      People will have to go back to producing real wealth, not over priced tech stocks, marking up housing prices, packaging the debt and selling it off to even bigger suckers.

      The unemployment rate will rise, the market may bounce around, but I still don't see an end to this crisis.

      I repeat what I initially said, by the time this crisis is over, thrift will be cool again.

      In my eyes, 92% of people still have jobs, the bars are still packed on weekends, people are upgrading their iphone gadets every few months....

      Housing prices are still falling, they have dropped 32 months in a row, the president is trying to help keep the people who shouldn't have bought in the homes ( and artificially keep prices high) which will only prolong the real estate crash and make it a longer flatter recovery.

      Dealing with an overpriced tech stock bubble is one thing, dealing with a housing/credit bubble is worse and will take longer ( especially with the fed/Nobama ) making all the wrong calls.

      Stay tuned...

      • 1 Reply to petergunn34
      • I too am bearish. But I still buy and sell stocks. U guys should too. Buy save stuff--stuff that pays big dividends. Dont expect industrial or financials to give u significant return any time soon. American prosperity is pioneered not by WS as they try to tell us to justify their wealth. It is made by scientific/technological developments. There r none on the horizon just now. The FDA is not licensing new drugs; why? Because there are none. The physics labs are not coming up with A-bombs or radars or computers. So WS had its day. But there are minor breakthroughs here and there and the banks wont give u too much if u lend them their money. So hi interest bearing stock is the only option.

    • WOOOOW YOU POST on your own question, QUITE A BIT lmao??????? SPECIAL EDD HUH !!!!!!!!!!!

      • 1 Reply to yanksgiantsjoe
      • I asked a question, provided my logic, and responded to the comments.

        You on the other hand posted a drunken rant that made little sense. Great post.



        So now that Obama's Trillion dollar spending plan is coming close to being passed, the markets weren't as encouraged as his supporters. If anything, everytime he and Turbo Tax Tim speak, the markets sell off.

        Change?

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