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Centerline Holding Co. Message Board

  • nv_smyth nv_smyth May 6, 2004 2:37 PM Flag

    Some Good Posts Today

    I like the good posts today.

    I would like to buy more CHC.

    I only wish I had a good guess where the bottom of these drops are?

    Yield at current price is 7.97%.

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    • One of the causes of high oil is that the dollar is being devalued. This allows the oil sellers to be able to rise prices in dollars and the rest of the world doesn't mind too much because it doesn't actually cost them any more.

      also demand is increasing greatly. (in China and Asia)

    • I believe you are all forgetting about a little thing called the Phillips Curve. Back in the Carter administration this flawed view of inflation and employment was still believed. For those who are unfamiliar with the curve, it basically states that a rise in inflation will generate higher employment. Therefore, allowing inflation to grow or even encouraging it will lead to higher employment and a stronger economy. That idea was obviously flawed and has been discredited.

      Thanks to the lessons learned during the Carter years, the Fed is definitely set against allowing inflation to grow at anywhere near the rates we saw back then. Just look at the way they fought against just the perception of inflation in '99. Sure, that may mean higher rates in the short term but I don't believe we will see a repeat of the 70's.

      In fact, these oil prices may be just the thing to beak OPEC's hold on the markets as we have already seen cheating by many of the members in order to grab a little extra share of the profits.

    • I have looked at the company profile -
      can't figure out what do they sell - i.e. who are the customers and what are they buying?

      only bought the stock because of long term chart, insider buying and healthy dividend

      anyone willing to take the trouble to explain


    • Sounds like they have improved over the last 30 years.But when you have been badly burned you tend not to even think about one of those things.Still wouldn't want one for 30 years.Good luck,Ralph.

    • My varaible rate is fixed for the next 4 years and then can only go up 2%. In 4 years I expect to have paid of about half my loan. the extra payments from getting a lower rate should make up for an increase in the future. Personally I can hardly wait until the place is paid off.

    • Well, most of the variable rate mortgages now are written with two hundred basis point caps per year, with a lifetime limit on the extent of interest rate increases. I don't think the risks are the same as the late 70's (the timeframe I am assuming you have in mind), although they are considerable.

      You remember the "misery index???" These young whippersnappers have no idea. It's all about the "malaise." <G>

      Let's see what happens at the end of this week with the inflation reports. All I know is that when I go to the food market, the fuel pump, or the doc for my meds/checkups...

      ...I can see inflation that doesn't show up yet in the numbers. I think the bond market has a ways to go on the downside. I don't own any REITS here. I've sold them all, but expect to be buying them back in 9-12 months.

      We'll see.

    • Looks like we think alike. I remember the last time we had just bought a farm and with both myself and my wife working town jobb we almost lost it due to the increases in our variable mortgages.Seems to me it went from about 7 to 15 in little over a year.Inflation at one time about 1% a month if I remember correctly.Those certainly not the good old days.If anyone has a variable rate mortgage RUN and refi with a fixed one.It can happen again.Good luck to all,Ralph.PS Pop did well with silver coins(junk kind) but i don't know if it's too late now.

    • You've got a good memory, Ralph. Me, too. And, you're right on the money. I can't believe that the Fed won't have rates over 2% until after the election. Good grief. Even at that rate, Mr. Greenspan has the monetary spigot wide open.

      Inflation will be a huge problem in 2005. 8% rates of return won't protect you against capital loss.

    • did i miss something. as i read the report the earnings for the past quarter is down due to the fact that they did not make the deal until april 19. i took this to mean that the return this past quarter will be down. but in turn, the report for the next quarter will be higher due to the date of the deal


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