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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

  • AKUG AKUG Apr 15, 2003 12:23 PM Flag

    valuation

    as I have posted in the past, numerous times, the valuation of this stock cannot be justified by looking at its current business, or financials.

    THIS IS A SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT.
    HIGH RISK - HIGH RETURN.

    Pfizer has made a large commitment...indicating belief in the science.

    Based on the volume, we are in a "wait and see" period. Waiting for news on Indoplin then seeing if its good.

    Certainly, it looks on the surface, like a juicy over valued short. But what will happen if they do actually get approved and start selling drugs? A longshot, perhaps. But the stock price would probably NOT go down, if they are approved.

    On the other hand...if the news is bad..the stampede for the door will be swift.

    IMHO, this is not the place to be piggish in either direction. The risk seems high on both sides. Longs should not fear taking some profits now, and shorts should not expect immediate calamity. I personally have been in HOLD mode for quite sometime.

    Long since 1998. The stock owes me nothing.
    Best of luck.
    Akug

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    • Actually Dew, I own shares in both nbix and sepr.

      The perception is that next day hangover effect may be a problem for estorra, the reality is it likely won't be known until it's on the market and "real-life" experience gives doctor's the answer.

      I don't understand you or your doctor's issue with longer acting. Extended release et al is typically a plus for convenience and compliance. Sometimes it can make a a big difference in efficacy and side effects.

      For sleep, it's going to make a huge difference in efficacy.

      Go ahead and short nbix I could care less. I was merely responding your remark that it's just a gimmick and another sonata. Now I'm in a debate with someone that can't concede that a longer than sonata acting sleep drug might actually work better. I can see this is going in circles.

    • I have read the 6 post you have made to this board and you have posted nothing informative IMHO. Just a lot of hear-say, no facts.

    • I'm not sure why you think your personal experience with a long acting wellbutrin or adderal would have anything to do with a longer acting sleep drug.

      Like I said, it should be intuitive that a very short acting sleep hypnotic won't keep you asleep. That's the problem of sonata.

      I like sepracor, but we're talking sepracor marketing versus pfizer marketing. There's a perception that the sepr molecule has too long a 1/2 life, which may lead to next day hangover effects. That perception is something sepr will need to address upon approval. That said, if sepr can sell 1/3 of indiplon it will be a big win for them.

    • Its all about the marketing label, Indiplon will have the broadest label of them all, Ambien only approved for short term use for sleep initiation only 7-10 days because of labeling issues, Indiplon will be for 6 months duration, sleep initiation, chronic insomnia, middle of the night awakening ectectect. its the label that counts not just the efficiency and safety of the compound. Indiplon will cannibolize Ambien sales in the first 18 months, current sales of over $1billion.

    • <<<<Having a sustained-release version of Indiplon may have benefit, but my experience with other sustained-release products is that many of them fall far short of the marketing claims.>>>>

      Cite us examples please.

      It's intuitive for sleep hypnotics. If it has a short duration it will be effective for only those with problems getting to sleep. For the rest of us that have problems staying asleep, of course sonata will be ineffective. Ambien has the same problem but it does have a longer duration than sonata so it's an improvement. Ambien sells a ton and everything points to indiplon having a big edge not to mention pfizer behind it. It's really a simple story.

 
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