This is a stock that will trade @50 to 60 times earnings, so a $120M to the bottom line will do just that. Thats about a $6 Billion market cap on $500M in sales after 50/50 split on a $1 Billion in sales projected by FY2007. Projections on the seize of the insomnia market is $5 Billion by FY2010. So IMO Indiplon could have sales in the $2 Billion range by FY2010.
Keep in mind, NBIX is a 1-trick pony biotech for the forseeable future. The number of BTs with 1 product that can carry a 60 multiple are limited, the reason being the discount the street needs to afford a company with that kind of business risk. Even with PFE as a partner, the chances of Indiplon ramping to 1B in sales in 3 years with Estorra, Ambien MR and generic Ambien on the market is at best a stretch.
I have seen several analyst reports on NBIX over the past several months taking all your competition comments into concideration and they all forcast Indiplon as a blockbuster by FY2007 - 08 time frame. Again Insomnia market projected to be $5 Billion by FY2010. Indiplon will have the "superior label" and Pfizer the "marketing clout" to grab 40% of this market IMO.