I like the stock, but had to take a hint from Pfizer here. If PFE wanted to buy NBIX out, the smart thing to do would have been to buy it before buying MICU. As it is, the stock has run up on Pfizer takeover speculation, and that was totally predictable for the Pfizer folks. Since PFE chose not to buy NBIX, I'm guessing they don't like the valuation (which surprises me). My takeaway is that PFE sees a bloody battle in the insomnia space, and profits may not be as high as I thought. Anyway, good luck to NBIX longs.
Gary L. and the Board do not want to sell NBIX at this juncture. They have a pipeline with at least 3 blockbusters including Indiplon. The projected insomnia market just in the good old USA is $5B by FY2010 so plenty of room for Indiplon and Lunesta. Hell, the GNRH molecule could do over $2B in sales and its close to p2 results.
I'm still long NBIX. My holdings at this point are <1 M shares. I'm going to hang on for the future. Indiplon should get the nod for long-term insomnia x-ment. The potential for a buyout is still there but more important NBIX has an intrinsic value far beyond their pps!! While I have more confidence in NFLD, DNDN and GTCB for the near future, <1year, I'm hangin on to the rest for a couple of years.
Good luck to those who've choosen to remain!! All the best!