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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

  • big4bio big4bio Dec 2, 2005 4:23 PM Flag

    Six month milestones

    The following is a summary of what could/should happen by midyear with NBIX'S pipeline:
    1) Approvals of 2 NDA's resulting in payment of a $100 million milestone-1Q06.
    2) Launch of the insomnia drug(s)with partner Pfizer in 2Q06.
    3) Four products, MS, Type I Diabetes, Congestive Heart failure, and Endometriosis, completing proof of concept Phase II trials. 1Q and 2Q06.
    4) As many as two new products entering Phase I clinical trials 1Q and 2Q06.
    5) Phase I data for BPH with NBI56418 in 1Q06.
    6) Initiation of two new phase II trials with CRF in Irritable Bowel Syndrome and Depression with partner GSK.

    Lot's of things to ponder.

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    • 1) Approvals of 2 NDA's resulting in payment of a $100 million milestone-1Q06.

      Already priced into the stock.

      2) Launch of the insomnia drug(s)with partner Pfizer in 2Q06.

      Already priced into the stock.

      3) Four products, MS, Type I Diabetes, Congestive Heart failure, and Endometriosis, completing proof of concept Phase II trials. 1Q and 2Q06.

      Already priced into the stock, but can be source for appreciation if good.

      4) As many as two new products entering Phase I clinical trials 1Q and 2Q06.

      No value ascribed.

      5) Phase I data for BPH with NBI56418 in 1Q06.

      No value ascribed.

      6) Initiation of two new phase II trials with CRF in Irritable Bowel Syndrome and Depression with partner GSK.

      Trial initiation is a non-event (and already priced in).

      #3 is your hit/miss on this play. New PII data that is good can drive this stock. The rest is already priced or too long-term to swing it.

      • 1 Reply to catalinamanic
      • NBIX is worth $50 today just based on Pfizer Indiplon deal and Pending FDA approval. Approval and Launch is worth another $25 in price per share within 6 months. IMO given cash position of NBIX investors get the rest of the pipeline for "FREE". or another way of looking at it $50 plus $10 per share cash = $60 bucks its current trading price. Peak sales for Indiplon via sell-side analyst could be as high as $2B with the Pfizer Marketing Machine driving Sales. With both an IR & MR formulations and different Mg versions Pfizer is going to focus on personalized patient care.

 
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