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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

  • biochemstudishere biochemstudishere Jun 20, 2006 6:35 PM Flag

    Merrill Lynch/Eric Ende are wrong

    It would appear that the "analysts" will be dead wrong again. Ende sucked at Banc of America. And in 6 months from now, he will have sucked here. To see how bad he sucked visit:

    As for NBIX: They stated that:

    "The FDA Not Approvable Letter for indiplon 15 mg tablets requested that the Company reanalyze certain safety and efficacy data. The letter also questioned the sufficiency of the Company's objective sleep maintenance clinical data with the 15 mg tablet in view of the fact that the majority of the Company's indiplon tablet studies were conducted with doses higher than 15 mg. Additional clinical data will likely be required."

    It says additional clincial data will likely be required, not that new clinical trials need to be conducted. NBIX evidently believes that there is sufficient data to RESUBMIT, not that it needs new trials.

    Lyons told the local newspaper on June 16, 2006:

    It was an observation Lyons reiterated yesterday, saying that Neurocrine had submitted data that should answer some, if not all, of the FDA's questions.

    �We did submit a lot of data during the review process and whether it was all taken into consideration during the process we don't know,� Lyons said. �In some cases, we don't believe it was.�

    For those that think someone like Merrill Lynch is always right, I do believe that they hired some guy named Henry Blodget.

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    • forgot,fidelity has been buying eln for awhile,now own 11%

    • best pick? honest truth? eln,but you need to know why.TY is now bigger than expected,news should confirm this soon,merrill who has had a sell for more than a yr now says EU penetration much bigger than expected.On oct 5th,im not 100% sure,but believe wye will talk about new Alzheimers drug,which is now in phase 2 trials and all indications are that it works,atleast thats what it sounded like on last conf call.Elan has a patent on nano drug applications,and continues to partner with others,in fact its a holding in many nano funds.Its also trading under recent highs of 19.50,so do not feel its overvalued.I expect eln to be over 20 near term,and between 25-30 in 6 om,imo.As for nbix and cvtx,believe there both undervalued for the same reasons you do.

    • ===== "hard to believe that we own the same stocks,i like cvtx,believe 15 near term,but i must give full disclosure,i have more than two stocks,and my top holding is eln @10"

      So what's the deal with ELN?

      I've been thinking about that buying into that one also. On Friday, I read that sales of tysabri in the EU were good, and I saw that ELN had risen, I'm assuming because of that news. But I thought BIIB was the recipient of EU sales, am I wrong? Actually, I guess good EU sales would predict good US sales, so maybe now is a good time to get in.

      So if you had some cash in your pocket, how would you split it between ELN, NBIX, and CVTX?


    • hard to believe that we own the same stocks,i like cvtx,believe 15 near term,but i must give full disclosure,i have more than two stocks,and my top holding is eln @10

    • movin_on_agin,

      ===== "It seems to me you answered your own question"

      So I'm assuming you'd put the full $20K into NBIX? Have you actually looked at CVTX or are you just supporting NBIX? I'm not attacking your opinion, I'm just wondering how familiar you are with it.

      ===== "One is way to risky"

      True. CVTX is riskier, but if either is going to rise significantly in the next 6 months, CVTX has the better odds.

      ===== "the other is near its bottom and has lots of cash to withstand bad news..."

      Half true. NBIX is near its bottom. As for having lots of cash, there's no question that they have much more than CVTX, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that they have "lots of cash" or that they could withstand ANY bad news.

      ===== "Go Neurocine!!!"

      And CV

      BTW, I should mention that I currently have more CVTX than NBIX. If I split the cash burning a hole in my pocket, 75% NBIX and 25% CVTX, I'll be close to holding equal amounts of each. That will probably be how I split it when the time is right.

      Good luck to you,

    • Nobuddy

      It seems to me you answered your own question... One is way to risky and the other is near its bottom and has lots of cash to withstand bad news...

      Go Neurocine!!!

    • ===== "the stock is what i consider a buzz stock,that a term i use when i feel based on trading patterns indicate imminent news,imo"

      I forgot to ask a specific question. Are you referring to any specific news, and can you put a timeframe on "imminent"?

      We're all expecting the results of the FDA MR meeting in October; is that the imminent news? Or maybe you're thinking a partnership announcement? Strong pipeline results announcement? Another 'restructuring'?


    • Truce.

      I saw that you are in CVTX as well as NBIX; I also own both of these currently. I'm strongly considering increasing my position in one or both. If you had $20K burning a hole in your pocket would you go $10K and $10K between them, or would you lean in one direction or the other?

      I think CVTX will get really good news from Merlin before NBIX will get really good news regarding Indiplon, so CVTX seems like the obvious choice. But then again, CVTX's cash position is so weak that bad news will crush it, whereas NBIX has little unfactored downside and I don't see it falling too drastically even if there is a setback.



    • I promised myself that I would ignore you ... but I can't ... so I guess you win on that front. But I have to ask you a question: Are you actually as stupid your posts would suggest? Or are you counting on others to be so stupid that they can't see that your being deceptive? I doubt you're that dumb, so I must assume you're a deceptive creep.

      Here's my post dated JUNE 21st: For the record, 'it' references NBIX and the other stock is GILD
      I agree wholeheartedly!

      When it moves, it will be news driven. What good news are you expecting? More importantly, when are you expecting it? I'm currently heavily invested where I expect 20-25% in less than 3 months. Do you expect groundshakingly good news for NBIX in the next 3 months? The only thing I could see going NBIX's way in the short-term is PFE putting an end to the SEPR rumor and/or giving a sign of support. I think I've been clear that I don't expect great news from the meeting with the FDA, and I don't think PFE's actions will cause a drastic price jump. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it.


      You'll notice that in that post I suggested that the other stock, GILD, would rise 20%-25% in three months. Amazingly enough, TODAY is precisely 3 months after I said that. Since 6/21, GILD has risen 17% and NBIX has dropped 20%. Given these INDISPUTABLE facts, you respond with the following.

      interesting,hasnt been any good news that could drive this stock,in fact most news has been negative,but nbix went from the low 8s to 11,anymore words of wisdom.That old posts things works well,perhaps you should consider taking that 5% and buying a CD,then you could keep 95% in your 1 stock,its got to be harvard

      It's clear that you did one of the following:
      Didn't bother to read my post --> which would make you stupid
      Didn't understand my post --> which would also make you stupid
      Read the post, understood it, and yet replied as you did --> which makes you deceptive

      So are you a dumbass or a liar? I'm leaning liar but if you plead dumbass, I'll stop saying that you're a liar.

      Oh, by the way, while you were throwing your money out the window on NBIX at $14+, I banked just under 20% in GILD in 3 months. So while I may not have a fancy Harvard edjewmacashun, I'll somehow learn to deal with that deficiency.

      At least I'm not a liar.


    • My wife said the same thing last night - and I ended up buying in this morning - more on that in a moment.

      I think the opinions of others can be better judged if you know the other person's situation. To that end, here is my situation. I've got a 401K and Roth which are both very diversified and lean towards safe, then I've got my investment stash. My stash is horribly undiversified. As of last night, I had 95% of it in one company and the other 5% in cash. I now have 95% in one company and 5% in NBIX.

      I don't think it's worth my while to cash out of my other position at this time, but no one gets rich earning 5% in money market accounts, so my cash is now on NBIX.


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