Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. shares nosedived early Friday, the day after it and partner Pfizer announced they were terminating their agreement to develop the sleep aid indiplon because of regulatory delays.
my favorite approach is like a balance - with NBIX just too damn low - i have been putting money in NBIX and letting ELN sit - for people with X amount in ELN and Y in NBIX - i don't think you will ever see ELN trade at 1.7X NBIX again , in fact I think ELN will do fine , but i think that within a year NBIX will be ahead of ELN in price
One additional comment: the reason I'd been watching NBIX for the past few years, besides my professional interest in a new class of anti-depressants, is that CFS can cause terrible chronic insomnia. Wouldn't wish it on anyone. So very interested in a sleeping pill that works. I've been through every sedating med in the PDR.
Most people, the FDA especially included, do not realize how untreatable chronic insomnia can wreck one's life; people think of it as a "lifestyle" drug, such as viagra, and while for many better sleep habits would do the trick, there are many of us -- with CFS and Fibromyalgia -- that suffer greatly from fragmented sleep, non restorative sleep, etc. It's not a lifestyle issue, it's a life restoring issue.
Also, have friend who are "healthy" but suffer from terrible chronic insomnia that ambien and lunesta and sleep hygeine do not help. And they don't have sleep apnea or restless legs syndrome, which are the only treatable symptoms that a sleep clinic can diagnose.
just caught up with your reply. thanks.
What's the mechanism of action of the CRF class of anti depressants? I'm a psychologist, not an MD, so my physiology is a bit shaky. But very intrigued at approaching depression from a different model than the current ones that fool around -- kind of in the dark - with neurotransmitters.
Right now I've got my $$ in Elan but it looks to me like NBIX will hang around a low price for awhile until the dust settles, as did ELAN; it takes awhile before reality catches up to the market price. Maybe by then ELAN's real value will be reflected in the pps and I'll move some $$$ into NBIX. Must admit, the last four years holding ELAN has been quite a trip! But my average buy-in is about $5/share so I'm ahead of where I was before BM and also recouped my losses from all my 2000-2001 mistakes (listening to a Prudential stock broker).
Elan caught my eye when it plummeted from $60 to $10 to $3. I finally learned the hard way to buy low!
It's quite something to have lost 90% of my money TWICE in four years and come out ahead, which I owe, in part, to you and Neuro's level headed analysis on the Elan board. I'm on disability with CFS, and desparately needed this nest egg.
"I have a fair number of friends that are MDs and most from my medical school class - they tell me that if there was a more effective short term pill they would love to get their patients off of ambien (and that lunesta doesn't work for a lot of patients) - seems to me there is a market for a drug that is 8-50X more potent and 9-170X more specific than its competitors - that is what indiplon is - just the best in class drug of this type - hmmm but analysts say it won't sell
I believe that once someone takes it and is not hung-over in the morning they will go to and stay with the newer and better drug"
This is exactly why I bought NBIX at $55. Obviously I took a bath; I sold at $20. Now I'm just trying to time NBIX's demise (in everyone else's mind) so I can pick up some really cheap shares and watch them grow over the next 2 years.
Well I am still in but down horrendously. I am thinking (wishfully) that the time and the $$$ to get the 15mg MR to market was not in the best interest of Pfizer. Saying that the $100 to $200 M a year is not that significant is correct when referring to a Pfizer but huge when referring to NBIX.
The other scenario is if the FDa has some issues with safety, however there did not appear that there was anyting striking in the results of the trials that I could glean.
you wrote....."So wait for the smart money to bail before commiting"....hmm....if the smart $$$ leaves, then WHY would one buy ? ....over at Elan, we have learned that i n v e s t i n g [duration] and Science [with Pins help] make a good combo choice. In the longer run, any buys below ten bucks seem like a K-Mart Special.... :-)
in early phase II with GSK, has two backups compounds in phase I or soon in phase I - being developed for depression, anxiety, and irritable bowel syndrome
medical literature is pretty high on CRF1 and 2 inhibitors such as the ones that NBIX is working on with PFE
with a tight relationship with GSK I wonder if GSK will want the indiplon franchise for europe and worldwide - we will see
When I was looking into NBIX a few years ago they had an anti depressant in the pipeline that worked in a way that appeared uniquely different than any on the market.
Do you know anything about that drug?