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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

  • biotech_wizard_soon2retire biotech_wizard_soon2retire Jun 24, 2006 1:27 PM Flag

    Pinvestment's advice can cost you a LOT

    While I do not blame him, as I made the decision, his cheerleading was a major factor in my decision to hold even as NBIX was heading lower. Read my story here and learn:

    Once again, do not see this a "it's his fault" message, see it more as a warning. Do your DD and be careful.

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    • "buy and hold". funny how wall street printed this on retails' brains. Buy and hold doesn't mean not selling.

    • the 2nd pr was an insult.....if you can't see that your blind......and trading is the way to go in these and hold is no longer advantageous......but keep buying into the wall st hype machine and fattening their paychecks

    • So, you forsee PFE pull-out is coming, huh? that was a nice trade. But it would have gone other way.

      Switching from a long to short after the 2nd PR doesn't sound a smart move to me althought it did good for you. Many so-called traders go broke because of their "smart" thinking.

    • Pin, you clearly don't know the first thing about investing. The fact that you are still on here posting every 3 minutes as the stock plummets proves that point. It costs me 9$ to make a trade. I never bought nbix becasue i thought this drug would change the world. I bought it becasue i thought the market overreacted. I bought it becasue i thought the fda didn't even get to thoroughly review mr. I bought it becasue i thought the speculation that pfizer would bail was ridiculous, and that in time the analysts would be proven wrong. Well, at least i had the ability to recognize that the 2nd pr they put out was a bad sign, and dumped my position and went short. Had i held i would be sitting on a paper loss of 60g's. Instead, by going short i turned around and booked a nearly 20g gain on this position. So, you are in no place to say anything. I really hope you have not lost a bundle, but if your money is were your mouth is things can't be very good for you. You must have a minimum 50% loss. I for one never ever would let that happen to me. And in my opinion nobody should ever take such a hit. You can talk all the science you want but the shorts were right on with this stock. As for your 4-6month timetable, that's how long it may take to resubmit the drug. The company is optimistic that they can get an early 2008 release. You on the other hand are even more optimisitc than them. That is a bit concerning.

      As for your 8million posts on lunesta being inferior, they mean nothing to me. All i care about is that nbix doesn't have someone to manufacture, distribute, or market the drug. Their cash on hand won't even come close to covering their expenses now that pfizer is gone. They do however have 180 days to clean things up, but that doesn't mean much to me. I think you will find out that big pharmas won't invest in nbix because they know the marketing costs are a huge problem with this drug. It was worth the risk if they could beat lunesta to market, but now its a whole different story. As for the bad taste in the mouth, I am sure plenty of nbix holders would rather have that then the loss they are sitting on. Btw what do you think your 8million posts are accomplishing. The market does not give two shits about the science when the drug can't get approved in time to be a blockbuster. Investors in nbix are gone....they wont be back till they understand how this is going to be cleaned up. You should have done the same. This is about making money, and not about being right 5 years from now. I will buy this stock again if i feel things are on the other hand have chosen to hold until things do change. That is stupidity. If positive developments occur the stock may get back to 18....30-40 is history. So, when i buy at 7-8 if i feel things may get better...i only need 3-4 $ to make a killing. You need 100% appreciation just to cut your losses. I hope that puts things in perspective. Do you really think i wish i was still long this stock???? If i had mantained my position it would have crippled my account. Instead, i made money. That my friend is my goal in any stock. I feel bad for the people who bought nbix at 60$...but i also think they were morons. I made a bad trade by buying the first dip instead of shorting it, but then again, my trade was based on mgmt withholding material information about the fda's analysis. And that was very irresponsible on their part.

    • who doesn't want a "sugar daddy"????

      I don't see one coming again, myself.

    • I am also not short, but if you listen toward the end of the conference call, Lyons stated that the deal w/ Pfizer was a pretty good one. When asked if they'd be looking for a deal comparable to the one they had with Pfizer, Lyons stated they'd be happy with that.

    • OTC BUZZARD: You heard the cc.? I did. If you did not, go ahead and read it.

      Have you ever created anything original? Did it come out perfect all the time for you?

      I believe Indiplon is pretty good. It got two out of one maybe approved. The story does not finish here.

      If you do not believe that they are working on other issues... well then, you go and see for yourself. Maybe they will give you permission for an inquiry into their headquarter. Then let
      us know what you observed. No joke.

      I do not care what any short think, I am staying put.

      If you do not believe... what can anyone do for you? It is up to you, if you believe they are doing crap. Fine. You are entitled to your wrong opinion.
      I am going to leave for the day. All these people trying to get others to sell so they can benefit, it is so sad.

    • Please be more specific...

      you said
      I am not a fool, I bought high because the pipeline of drugs and the next FDA know the story... I got in. But NBIX does have a lot of value. The fact that you do not see it,

      The only pipeline I see from this company is promises and then a bunch of failures. Look at their MS drug they hyped for so long. Through phase II trials then discontinued.

      Now look at this debacle on indiplon. This company has a big history of underdelivering what they promise.

      You can only believe the rest of their pipeline is similar to what we have seen this year.

    • 24 minutes 20+ secs into CC

      Q: "In regards to any future partners you might seek for indoplon what type of terms would you want to get at a minimum?"

      A: "...the terms we had with Pfizer seems pretty attractive to me"

      Q: "...the likelyhood of having that kind of deal is probably less likely?"

      A: "Well,I don't know, that deal was cut some time ago and I think with this asset more clearly through a regulatory process or meeting regulatory requirements, you know we'll see."

      Q: "Okay , so it really does hinge John on what kind of feedback you get from the FDA at this point as follow through based on what their letter is to you."

      A: "Correct"

    • I listen to the cc. I think you are right.

      And all the shorts go out and do your DD. I am not a fool, I bought high because the pipeline of drugs and the next FDA know the story... I got in. But NBIX does have a lot of value. The fact that you do not see it,
      and you work at creating more insecurities to benefit yourselves... That is all you want.

      The thing is I am greatful to invest in companies that are doing something good to create new drugs to help people. Because if it were not for these drug companies how are to resolve the health problems of the world?

      We need to be healthy, to be productive. And I do not know about you, but I want to be healthy
      and happy until I am over a l00. And so, I hope the same for my family and yours.

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