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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

  • pinvestment pinvestment Jun 25, 2006 9:35 AM Flag

    take a long look at value

    have you ever seen a biotech stock trade at book value?

    ( A) if natrecor from scios was good enough for JNJ to pay 2.4 billion for it (and natrecor has problems) then how much is urocortin2 worth?

    (B) if indiplon has attributes (potency and selectivity) that show it is better than any current sleep drug on the market - how much is it really worth? it will be very easy for indiplon and possibly a partner to market against the myriad problems that lunesta and ambien have

    (C) if GnRH inhibitors continue to show the same efficacy in phase III that they have shown in phase II and they are targeted for a 2.2 billion$ per year market with advantages over current entrants - how much do you value GnRH inh at as it moves towards the endometriosis / prostate cancer / BPH markets

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    • That is the most logical, and sound reason I've read re: why Pfizer may have walked. It makes perfect sense, never thought about the milestone payments and marketing costs for 5 and 10mg. Nice post!!

    • not true threeskool, those messages were in direct reply to this from spetty.

      Don't ask a question if you don't want an answer...

      ---
      How many times are you going to post the same thing and ask the same questions? Let me ask YOU a question: how many drugs has NBIX failed on? Obviously the MS drug was a failure. The jury is out, at least on the 15mg idiplon, but we know the 5 and 10mg doses are at least approvable. So, from what I can tell, they have clearly failed on exactly ONE compound. How many others have they failed on in the past? Again, for the sake of this argument, let's consider indiplon up in the air. I've come up with one failure and no successes. I would hardly call a biotech company with ONE failed compound and no successes a failure, would you? If so, I would bet that Genentech and Amgen were "failures" at some point as well, based on your reasoning. It's not like the company has had 10 failed compounds, as you seem to insinuate. I'll be anxiously awaiting your reply.

      http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077095&tid=nbix&sid
      =7077095&mid=26326

    • Hey Spetty,

      Now that we are up to 9 failed divisions and probably at least 20 compounds, can you name one compound that NBIX has taken from IND to production? I did all the hard work showing you how much NBIX has failed, show me the success.

      Also, here is a bit of trivia, how much has it cost NBIX to perform all wonderful totally useless research on those 9 failed divisions and 20 or so compounds over the years?

      Answer: NBIX has a combined total deficit since inception of $383 million dollars.

      That is a ton of money with absolutely nothing to show for it so far...

    • So,is this unusual?Have not many small bio-techs failed their partners and stumbled as many times?You are becoming as bad as you say pin is by using information for your purposes.

    • Spetty, in case you are wondering, here is the link to the 1998 10-k that verifies my last post.

      http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/0000891618-98-001665.txt

    • spetty, I went back to 1998 and found 2 additional divisions that have since been cancelled, they were:

      Neurosterioids and Neurogenomics

      And there were also an additional 2 collaborations that have since failed. One with Janssen and another with Lilly.

      The interesting part about this information is the fact that NBIX took their neurosteroid division compounds all the way to phase III before they pulled the plug.

      So I am up to 9 failed divisions and 6 failed collaborations.

      Should I continue further or have I made my point?

    • spetty, I am not going to spend hours on this but I will highlight a few things to make my point.

      You asked...

      <<So, from what I can tell, they have clearly failed on exactly ONE compound. How many others have they failed on in the past?>>

      Here is the latest breakdown from NBIX's website, they claim to have 8 programs in various stages of research and development. Six programs have been advanced to clinical trials.
      http://www.neurocrine.com/html/clin_main.html

      Going back to their 2002 annual report you get these stats...

      ---While we independently develop the majority of our product candidates,

      we have entered into collaborations for five of our 15 programs. We currently

      have active collaborations with GlaxoSmithKline, Wyeth-Ayerst Laboratories

      (Wyeth-Ayerst), a division of American Home Products and Taisho Pharmaceutical

      Co., Ltd. (Taisho).
      http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/914475/000089843002001036/d10k.txt
      ---

      So clearly, NBIX has gone from 15 drug programs down to 8, they have gone from 5 collaborations (including PFE on indiplon) down to the one remaining one they have now with GSK.

      They have had 7 full divisions fail, and countless compounds in each division.

      So as you said...

      <<It's not like the company has had 10 failed compounds, as you seem to insinuate.>>

      In fact they have had 7 divisions fail, and probably more like 20 compounds.

      You really should try and do a little more research...

    • How many times are you going to post the same thing and ask the same questions? Let me ask YOU a question: how many drugs has NBIX failed on? Obviously the MS drug was a failure. The jury is out, at least on the 15mg idiplon, but we know the 5 and 10mg doses are at least approvable. So, from what I can tell, they have clearly failed on exactly ONE compound. How many others have they failed on in the past? Again, for the sake of this argument, let's consider indiplon up in the air. I've come up with one failure and no successes. I would hardly call a biotech company with ONE failed compound and no successes a failure, would you? If so, I would bet that Genentech and Amgen were "failures" at some point as well, based on your reasoning. It's not like the company has had 10 failed compounds, as you seem to insinuate. I'll be anxiously awaiting your reply.

    • it is nice to see the numbers of people that understand that PFE pulling out was a benefit to NBIX is growing

      even on a medium sized drug - 200-400 million per year - can generate 4-8$ of free cash flow for NBIX

      they handed us the golden goose - but maybe the analysts had a different agenda and tried to kill the golden goose

    • sleep, how on earth can you say these two statements together?

      <<Nothing in PFE's actions say Indiplon is not commercially viable.

      The only thing that can be assumed from what has been said is that PFE doesn't believe that further investment in Indiplon, based on the 2002 agreement with Neurocrine, is the best use of their money now.
      >>

      To continue PFE only needs an additional $10-30 mm investment, in a drug that they have already dumped $400 mm into, plus a sales force.

      Clearly PFE doesnt think indiplon is worth any additional investment, AND if PFE goes after Lunest, what they are saying is that they believe that indiplon will not be competitive, why else would they buy a drug only to have it rendered useless by indiplon?

      <<There is nothing new to know about Indiplon's science that wasn't known in 2002.>>

      CLearly this is not the case, if that was true, 5-10-15 mg indiplon would have been approved in May. What is becoming clear in our speculation here is that without the sleep maintenance indication PFE doesn't think indiplon is a commercially viable product.

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