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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

  • pinvestment pinvestment Jun 30, 2006 4:34 PM Flag

    two other hurdles cleared

    the first hurdle - the end of the quarter is a good one to get in the rearview mirror - I don't think too many funds are going to want NBIX in them when the quarter ends - a silly practice but i could imagine that people who want in might have waited til the end of the quarter - we should know whether this had any effect next week - but i could understand why some folks would want NBIX in their fund for the 3rd quarter - first of all NBIX is severely undervalued and could crack 30$ just on people understanding the pipeline value - and with one good word on indiplon and its off to the races - i sure hope we have a fat short position also

    number 2 - today was the russel indexes reweighting - this is done purely on market cap - and since NBIX shrunk by more than 80% during the quarter a lot of indexers need to part with indiplon shares - but that should be done now

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    • I would lean towards the idea that the FDA will say no more clinical data is needed on IR and that the FDA might want another 3 month or possibly 6 month trial on MR ( not that there isn't efficacy - just that it seems that the FDA wants similar trials and substance for similar types of drugs)

      by the time this happens - reason #1 should have already passed and this news can remove the fear of #2 - thus allowing a more reasonable valuation of NBIX

      just a reminder - NBIX did not say when the meeting with the FDA will occur - but they did say they will issue a PR after completion of the meeting

      funny thing is that Dr. Lyons entourage and all their secretaries and support staff will know when NBIX folks are traveling en masse to washington if that is how the meeting will be held - if it is going to be a CC between NBIX and the FDA then all the research folks at NBIX will be preparing for it and will know when this might occur

    • 2. this one i believe in concert could explain the severe undervaluing of NBIX and the reason why the PFE handoff of indiplon was not recognized as a great financial advantage to NBIX - no matter how unsubstantiated this point is I think it must follow like this A. FDA approvable and unapprovable letter as misconstrued as meaning that indiplon doesn't work B. PFE action is not seen as an economic move my PFE but as a condemnation of the vast amount of data C.A + B are misconstrued to mean that indiplon will not be approved in the short term and NBIX could abandon it ( that would explain a low price but would not explain valuing the entire pipeline as zero - if this errant hypothesis is indeed what is holding NBIX down then it should begin a rapid jump up after the FDA meeting with NBIX ( see the CEPH action yesterday) - if the FDA says no more clinical data is required for IR then NBIX can soar - if FDA says no more clinical data is required for IR or MR then NBIX can soar then rocket to the moon

    • but other than DNA nobody is getting much through the FDA on the first try - so not a big deal to me - one must also remember that the indiplon filing was more than 300,000 pages of documents and some came in as the review was progressing - so it is possible that the FDA was just overwhelmed - these are all plausible but are not reasons that i think can hold NBIX down

    • "NBIX could crack $30 just on people understanding the pipeline"

      Well Mr NBIX Expert why don't you give us longterm (1997) NBIX investors a detailed account on how you arrive at a $30 Pipeline Value. I can't figure out how we get to $12 in the next 12 months not alone $30+

      • 1 Reply to frogsleapmerlot
      • just like i told boxcarlong the other night - i don't care if you were born on the NBIX board I will value your opinion depending on how you can back it up - boxcarlong shot off his mouth about the pipeline being worth 5$ but couldn't back it up

        i have backed up my assertions on pipeline value with posts over the last two weeks - feel free to review them and comment on my opinion if you like - but i would also like you to explain why you think NBIX cannot go over 12$ - ( that seems rather silly to me - so why not explain it)

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