I have not posted about NBIX for a very very long time. Old timers know who I'am. I have recently re-purchased a long position in NBIX that was taken from me via $45 put options a month after the Indiplon crash. Its time to be long NBIX given its pipeline position with 3 ways to win over the next 12 months.
We get an FDA decision on Indiplon December 12Th and given the careful analysis and refiling that was done, its 90% assured that the 5mg and 10mg IR version will be approved and a partnership signed or better yet big pharma buys the company after CRF data is known.
The bigger story is the P2 CRF trial data from thier partnership with GSK. I hope investors realize that Gary Lyons negotiated the rights per an NBIX option to co-promote these molecules. This is Huge to a little Biotech Company like NBIX, as IBS and Social Anxiety are both Billion dollar markets and would be very valuable assets in a big pharma buy-out.
we will get the 6 month P2b GnRH trial data on bone density by the end of Q2, FY08. It should be positive based on previous P2b data.
It is IMO, that NBIX will get taken out most likely by either GSK or whoever becomes the Indiplon marketing partner/buyer. This could happen as early as the end of Q1, FY08 as the proof of concept for CRF will be known for both indications. I figure we are looking at $40 per share in a buy-out (before GnRH data is known) if CRF data is positive and Indiplon is approved.
The stock is trading for $10 and change, even if NBIX just hits on only one program its still a $15 stock. I see no real downside risk at this point in time and $30 to the upside. From a risk reward biotech stand-point to me its a clear positive.
Do your own DD and have a glass of Merlot
Dear Dr. Frog,
Can you enlighten me as to how you obtained your info? I am quite impressed with your details and much obliged, but just want some assurance as to your source!
Former RE agent who now trades
Go back and listen to the Q3 earnings update CC and the last couple of investor CC's. Nice price action the last 2 trading days, those $10 December put options are starting to look cheap for some Indiplon FDA action insurance.
Wow Frogsleap your back!! Old times- seems like forever and I respected your many posts on this play. I haven't been on this board since Q3 of 2006. I hold NBIX stock. I would love to say great things about the pipeline, but I have to be frank with you, this one is a lottery ticket for me. Management is a big piece of my analysis and Gary and company are very aggressive to the point of reckless. They simplay can not be trusted. I hope they deliver a return, but this one is fun money for me. Good luck!
hey u should go over and read the IV board they think gary is to slow on all issues regarding the company and pipeline. Different strokes for different investors. I for one like the fact NBIX has plenty of cash, Two blockbuster drugs in P2B (CRF & GnRH) with news pending on CRF in Q4, and Indiplon FDA date 12/12/07.