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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

  • frogsleapmerlot frogsleapmerlot Oct 13, 2007 3:41 PM Flag

    NBIX Buy-Out, 3 ways to win.

    I have not posted about NBIX for a very very long time. Old timers know who I'am. I have recently re-purchased a long position in NBIX that was taken from me via $45 put options a month after the Indiplon crash. Its time to be long NBIX given its pipeline position with 3 ways to win over the next 12 months.

    We get an FDA decision on Indiplon December 12Th and given the careful analysis and refiling that was done, its 90% assured that the 5mg and 10mg IR version will be approved and a partnership signed or better yet big pharma buys the company after CRF data is known.

    The bigger story is the P2 CRF trial data from thier partnership with GSK. I hope investors realize that Gary Lyons negotiated the rights per an NBIX option to co-promote these molecules. This is Huge to a little Biotech Company like NBIX, as IBS and Social Anxiety are both Billion dollar markets and would be very valuable assets in a big pharma buy-out.

    we will get the 6 month P2b GnRH trial data on bone density by the end of Q2, FY08. It should be positive based on previous P2b data.

    It is IMO, that NBIX will get taken out most likely by either GSK or whoever becomes the Indiplon marketing partner/buyer. This could happen as early as the end of Q1, FY08 as the proof of concept for CRF will be known for both indications. I figure we are looking at $40 per share in a buy-out (before GnRH data is known) if CRF data is positive and Indiplon is approved.

    The stock is trading for $10 and change, even if NBIX just hits on only one program its still a $15 stock. I see no real downside risk at this point in time and $30 to the upside. From a risk reward biotech stand-point to me its a clear positive.

    Do your own DD and have a glass of Merlot

    frogsleapmerlot

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