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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

  • frogsleapmerlot frogsleapmerlot Jun 9, 2010 8:20 PM Flag

    Lets Do some MATH

    Endo 100M patients on a worldwide basis 9 Million in USA

    So let say they have 10% penetration rate that 10M patients. I don't know what the annual cost per patient would be but if its a $5 per day drug its alot of $$$$$$$$$. The treatment duration is the critical factor

    They are HUGE NUMBERS easily we have a $2B drug just for ENDO. UF market is even bigger and they will start at a P2a trial quickly moving into P3 trials.

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    • You make a very significant point, off label use for UF.

    • SO youre saying that the phase 2a (which would start sometime in Jan 11), complete in 2 yrs (Jan 13), then another year before starting Phase 3 (Jan 14) then completing in 2 yrs (Jan 16), then a year for NDA filing and 10month approval wait (Jan 17) Then 6 months for marketing and manufacturing ramp up (jul 17).....

      Is this the math you are trying to do? Please coorect me where you think I went wrong, because I dont get what youre trying to say. Also, I dont think they will do Phase 2a....maybe Phase 2b, but not 2a. plus I dont think hitting 10Mil (10%) is achievable. yes 100mil world wide, but in poorer contries, I think they would just get a hysterectomy to fix the issue, instead of the cost of drugs.

      • 1 Reply to lloyddobbler2
      • That marketing penetration rate will be mostly covered by N. america and the EU. So don't get all twisted up in your panties

        So lets just use a nice round concervative number of 2M patients x $500 cost per patient on an annual basis = $1B drug on a very very concernvative basis. Double the cost to $1000 = $2B

        The current meds like lupron cost about $2800 per year and all have serious safety issues. I believe Lupron has a black box warning?

        so if the insurance industry can have a drug for just about 30% of current treatment price and the women health Doc's have a drug for ENDO that is very safe and effective. I think we have a winner

        As for the timeline for Uterin Fibroids just add 18 months to the ENDO timeline and your there.

        Just my opinion

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