Endo 100M patients on a worldwide basis 9 Million in USA
So let say they have 10% penetration rate that 10M patients. I don't know what the annual cost per patient would be but if its a $5 per day drug its alot of $$$$$$$$$. The treatment duration is the critical factor
They are HUGE NUMBERS easily we have a $2B drug just for ENDO. UF market is even bigger and they will start at a P2a trial quickly moving into P3 trials.
SO youre saying that the phase 2a (which would start sometime in Jan 11), complete in 2 yrs (Jan 13), then another year before starting Phase 3 (Jan 14) then completing in 2 yrs (Jan 16), then a year for NDA filing and 10month approval wait (Jan 17) Then 6 months for marketing and manufacturing ramp up (jul 17).....
Is this the math you are trying to do? Please coorect me where you think I went wrong, because I dont get what youre trying to say. Also, I dont think they will do Phase 2a....maybe Phase 2b, but not 2a. plus I dont think hitting 10Mil (10%) is achievable. yes 100mil world wide, but in poorer contries, I think they would just get a hysterectomy to fix the issue, instead of the cost of drugs.