Overall it is very positive, although Abbott's 2016 approval target for Elagolix for Endometriosis was a disappointment, I thought. I was really counting on them getting the trials squared away for a 2014 approval timeframe. NBIX did do a good job emphasizing that they are going full speed ahead with Endo and Uterine Fibroids, so that shows great confidence in the Elagolix. Secondly, there is new data for the VMAT-2 Phase II trial, which should lead investors to understand that this drug also has a high chance of success. Thirdly, they have new data soon on their other successful drug study that was announced last month, which will be released shortly. Overall, it was very positive and the stock should start heading north. I just thought we could have hit the $10 dollar range with a more agressive Elagolix schedule.
The time frame definitely worried me as well. There's nothing that we can do about it, but 2014 would have been great! Meanwhile, the next big milestone is the uterine fibroids data. If positive then I would expect NBIX to increase to a higher level. If negative I'm not sure what to expect.
I feel good that the Phase II Uterine Fibroids results will be positive, which may or may not lead to an eventual NDA. It's just much easier here at this point. If that happens, people will rightfully or wrongfully project total success will happen. That's a billion in Endometiosis sales and 500 million in Uterine Fibroids sales. The current market cap is still under $500M. I see this going up in anticipation of the Phase II results and really moving up big time upon the results. If we can hit 9 bucks a share prior to the results, I'll dump half my position to hedge a potential downer. We should get some help with Urocortin partner and the start of the next VMAT-2 trial. This is a stock to just keep and look at again on October 1st. I OBVIOUSLY don't do that, but I should.