I'm looking forward to the reaction at the Morgan Stanley conference talk on Wednesday morning. I may get a chance to listen to it. If I do, I will post on the highlights. I think the company is getting close enough to some major milestones that we may start to get a bump upward, but since there isn't any real news coming out in the next couple of months, this could continue to be a sleeper. We'll see.
That Motley Fool article today has one and only one valid point, and that is that there are likely no near term catalysts to propel this stock up big over the short term. To think that this $500M market cap stock should be worth less, well, you have to really look at the pipeline and make your own judgements.
Today, they may a nice case to point out that Endometriosis has Lupron, which is an Abbott drug for $100M annually and another Pfizer drug, for about $60M. Both drugs can only be taken for 12 months because they cause bone loss and there are other side effects. So, clearly a success would mean a huge market share for Elagolix. They expect to receive top line data for the Phase III study from Abbott, who is in full control of the study, in early 2014.
The Uterine Fibroids Phase II study ends in March or April of 2013. They have 5 co-horts in the trial. For Europe, it would require a comparator study, so Abbott hasn't released any plans for either Fibroids or Endometriosis yet.
With the VMAT-2 for Tardive Dyskinesia, they have gotten their Phase II trial design approved and will start later this month. They expect late Q.1 2013 results on the trial. It was interesting how they pointed out the one site in the Phase 2A study where the doctor gave out the wrong scores. They had videotaped everything, so they could prove it was doctor error. There's just no instant replay in the FDA world! I think they done a good job showing that there is good reason to believe that the program could be successful, like any other Phase 2 drug. It could go either way.
They did not discuss Ucortin 2. No reason to do that anyway, as they are looking for a partner and nothing will be new until they find one.
I like what I heard. So, I agree without a catalyst, this isn't going to double anytime soon, but especially with $170M+ in the bank and that pipeline. It should be hanging around at $9 to $9.50 a share, not $7. You can see this thing with a lot of success going to $20 in 18 months, but there are other things to invest in. Sooner or later more and more people will come around to this story here.