I agree with most of what you write, except for the secondary. The CEO said at the last presentation that they have enough money to take VMAT2 to commercialization. (Of course, that begs the question of whether he can be trusted given his track record.) The other main drug, Elagolix, is entirely in Abbott's hands. Finally, under the partnership agreement with Abbott, they have over $500mm in milestones. Management has said that the majority of those milestones are pre commercial. I would expect them to get a milestone payment next year. Wild cards here are the promised novel compounds coming out of the lab and the diabetes compound with Boehringer Ingleheim.
I think it's also worth noting that Elagolix is also being studied for uterine fibroids and I believe it was stated in an earlier conference call that Abbott would have data in the Spring but it was not known if they would release it or not. Clinicaltrials.gov has the uterine fibroids trial as completing this month with final completion in the spring.
I have always believed that Abbott just might go ahead and take Neurocrine out if that data comes back positive. Abbott could be sitting on a potential blockbuster (especially if this pans for uterine fibroids) and the market cap is only $500M. Also, we have to keep in mind that Abbott does focus on CNS as well so the VMAT2 program could be an interesting fit.
I've long thought this was a perfect acquisition target for Abbott...we'll see. They save a bundle in the longer term if these programs continue to look positive.