With the latest failure, NBIX is way higher than it should be considering that there is no approved drug at this point. It has potential and I hope it pans out in the lng term, but I compare to Celsion, which has similar trial results that did not meet endpoint, but showed promise. Celsion (CLSN) was punished to the extreme, even though its Thermodox shows great promise in certain liver cancers, which have no other treatment options. Balancing things out, I think that Celsion should be higher than it is and Neurocrine should be lower than it is, probably around $8 share, until it produces real results. Again, they both have promise and could be great stocks, but it is strange why NBIX gets valued so high. I see more downside from this point.
Respectfully disagree. I spent 31 years in Pharma. They are not apples to apples. And the market potential and vital importance to Abbvie/NBIX elagolix is not fully appreciated. PIII, not PII trials of a mental health small molecule that would, could be a challenge for any company to bring forward. And what now appears clear in hindsight....is they did a find job bringing Elagolix forward and into Abbvie's hands; but went too conservative on VMAT. That mistake will not be made again as they push the dose (yes, and risk profile, no free lunch) in a clear, unmet area of mental health that everyone should root for success.
I do believe there is promise in NBIX. However, I think it has been on a hyper-inflated rise over the last year and only on this promise and no real substance. I do plan on investing in NBIX, when the price is more in line with the risk and potential. I am thinking $8-$9 and even that is higher than it was earlier this year, which is good considering before these recent bad results. I mean we had insiders selling like crazy since June. Some have argued it was automatic, but that is garbage. Where is there ANY insider buying? There hasn't been any! I don't know about you, but if I was on the inside and had firsthand inside knowledge of all the positive info these guys are stating, I would be buying not selling. Why are they only selling? Then consider that these latest results, as a minimum, delay everything by a year at least. They have lots of cash, but even at today`s projections, there will be nothing marketed until 2017 at the earliest. This is all hinging on successful trials and FDA approval, which I am sure your experience in pharma tells you is never a sure thing. Again I will compare to Celsion, which has a very promising drug delivery system that is great science. They did not meet the primary endpoint in their trial of thermodox and were pummeled (lost 85%), even though there was a significant response in a sub-group and other trials are showing excellent results. I believe in the science of both companies, but I believe that there is an imbalance in each.