The new Motley Fool article out today highlights the promise and the problems with the latest trial failure;
"No company had investors wishing for a reset button more than Neurocrine Biosciences (NASDAQ: NBIX ) , which lost 34% on the week after delivering disappointing mid-stage results for its drug for tardive dyskinesia, or TD, NBI-98854. The drug, which aims to reduce symptoms of TD -- a disease marked by involuntary muscle movements, especially of the lower face -- proved to be not statistically significant from the placebo in the 50mg dose but did reach statistical significance in the 100mg dose. Why this is bad news is Neurocrine expected the 100mg dose to be a max-tolerated dosage and had been looking for solid results in the 50mg dosing category. The good news is that the 100mg dose appears to work; the bad news is that the company needs to run an additional phase 2 trial with even higher doses than 100 mg before it can even consider moving NBI-98854 to a late-stage trial, meaning the need to spend more time and more money"
If this drug pans out, it will be well down the road and after another expensive trial. As I stated before, NBIX should be no higher than it was a year ago with this setback and the risk involved is much higher now than it was back then. With no liklihood of profits until at least 2017, if things go perfectly well, there is still more downside here and lots of time.
"As I stated before, NBIX should be no higher than it was a year ago.."
Then I'd have to conclude you're being consistently wrong. In this industry time is money. The value of NBIX is in Elagolix and our partner is one year closer to bringing Elagolix to market. The closer we get to launch, the higher the value of NBIX. The value of NBIX does not remain static as you argue.
So let me get this straight - a year ago, NBIX had Elagolix and NBI-98854 as potential near-term drug candidates. The latest data shows NBI-98854 failed to meet the primary endpoint and at BEST is delayed a year from any positive result. So now NBIX is down to one potential drug, Elagolix, on which its near-term future depends. I will admit that preliminary data looks good, but that means nothing. Even if everything pans out perfectly, which it often does not, NBIX does not plan on filing an NDA with the FDA until 2016! So what changed? A failure happened with the latest trial! Insiders SOLD tons of shares! The company is presently valued at $713 million, when they have nothing to sell yet. That is far too high and there is just too much time and risk between now and profit. Even the insiders knew this when they sold.