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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

  • Rmatres Rmatres Dec 18, 1997 3:29 PM Flag

    Coverage Initiated - BUY

    Coverage initiated by Prudential w. a BUY rating. Any feedback?

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    • Been reading the comments you and ShaharAvi have left on numerous sites. Find information very educational. Will be doing some research on some of the companies you follow.

      Have you ever checked out Novavax (NOX). Currently holding that and COCN. Would be interested in anything you knew about NOX. They have a couple of drugs in trials which I think are promising, and I also believe a promising delivery system in their novasome technology.

      Was disappointed to hear ShaharAVI beliefs COCN won't be moving soon. Might have to average down in a few months I guess. believe

    • I've replied to your post(s) on the relevant boards - e.g., SNAP, IPIC, GLIA.

    • Yea, I know the feeling. I also need more money. There are so many attractive opportunities right now. I'm in a really tough
      position because I don't want to lay out to much money, but I'm really interested in about six or seven stocks. (GLIA, TTNP, SIBI,
      CEPH, NXCO, PRCY?,and CYPB?) The last two are a riskier, but have products that I find interesting. There is one more, but you'll
      laugh when I tell you. Here I go---IPIC. I heard something this weekend that really openned my eyes to this company. A friend of
      my family recently suffered a stroke and because of not recieving a med within a couple of hours is in deep trouble. One of my
      relatives was an executive in the pharmaceutical industry and is now involved in biotechs mentioned the science at IPIC. Apparently,
      this stuff is for real. Because you know so much about the company I thought you may be able to tell me when their stroke drug
      comes up for FDA review. I have not done enough homework on this company and need to get to work. In addition, do you think
      they'll survive all these lawsuits? Some doctors think that Redux played a very small role in the heart valve problems. And where do
      you see this company trading in a year from now?
      I also noticed that you're a fan of CEPH. I also like this company and want to share a little info I found. I don't think
      this is anything the company issued in its press releases so you may or may not know about it. I very recently read an article
      about a study done with Myotrophin and Lou Gehrigs disease. I short, it said that Myotrophin slowed the progression of the
      disease. In addition, there was a program on Narcolepsy on this weekend. they didn't mention CEPH, but the pill bottle they showed
      had a CEPH label on it. They discussed future treatments for the disorder and their science was mentioned several times. I
      really need to settle on just two or three picks. I will definetly eliminate the smallest and most speculative companies. That
      means getting rid of CYPB and PRCY. It also means thinking twice about my investment in CORX. This is an example of what not to do
      when investing. I got in WAY too early on this one, and I'm paying for it. If Schizophrenia and Alzhiemers results come back
      positive and there is still no corporate deal in place I may have to come back and revisit this one at a later date. Too much money
      tied up on something that is too high risk. Especially when you've got companies like CEPH and GLIA trading in these low ranges.
      Well, gotta get back to work. Hope you had a good weekend and welcome back.

    • Actually, I was wrong. NBIX is RECOMMENDED by NeuroInv. He states (among other things) that a small molecule neuro- trophin program will be announced this year as well as a CNS product in-licensing. His YE98 target is 15, but again these types of predictions are NOT his strong suit.

      His Neuroscience Index came out down 37.2% in 1997.

      Doc, you're in big trouble if I AM teaching you patience regarding biotech investing!!

      You don't have to wait for product approvals. By far my biggest flub of '97 was getting IMPATIENT with MEDI and selling
      before its huge move. It was obvious to me that their latest drug was a winner and couldn't understand why the stock wasn't moving
      in anticipation of the release of pivotal trial results. Geez, from that lesson I learned (again) that nobody ever went broke
      under- estimating the efficiency of the biotech markets. In short, (see GLIA among others) the stock price action of biotechs in
      the weeks pre and post big news events is often completely irrational. So, yes the best time to get in is on the early side. I'd
      much rather buy 1 year too soon than 1 week too late.

      I've found too that I screw up most when I don't adhere to my own "discipline" (used VERY loosely) or instincts. I also try to curb excitement to buy by telling myself that it's extremely unlikely that I'm about to buy the stock at the lowest price it will ever be at. But when I keep coming to the same conclusions about the stocks prospects, then I COMMIT and try not to beat myself up when I see that I didn't buy at the absolute bottom.

      Of the neuro stocks I currently hold - CEPH, IPIC & TTNP - I feel most strongly about IPIC. It's a beautiful contrarian play
      on top of all the great fundamentals. You know what they say - the best time to buy is when no one else wants to! BTW, I still
      anxiously await your more thorough analysis on TTNP. As for CEPH, I am convinced that the risk/reward ratio is terrific and my gut
      tells me that MYO definitely gets approved. You know, it's hard to be a clinical psychologist w/o thinking you have good
      instincts.

      Right now, I'm trying not to kick myself since the above 3 picks are all below the price I paid for them. I don't need to add to my position though, because they're pretty substantial as is.

      I'll be out-of-town until Tuesday, so no rush to respond. I was hoping that H&Q would be a spur to the sector, but looks like I'll just need to wait for the news flow.

      P.S. I think we can catch COCN at the same price 3-5 months from now. Don't have the desire to go bottom-fishing w CTII now, but Lord, it is cheap. GLIA too. Damn, I need more money!

    • Happy to see that COCN is one of your favorites. I've been trying to leave you a message and its site, but for some reason
      can't access it. I'll try again later. I agree with you about NRGN. They've had one delay after another and I'm not convinced the
      schizophrenia program will ever get off the ground. It almost seems like they have too many drug programs. Regardless, they do have
      impressive science. The cash and management don't seem so bad either. Like you, I'm waiting a bit longer for that one. Wow! Are you
      teaching me something? I'd swear that I'm showing hints of patience here. Wouldn't it be amazing if I started waiting until final
      drug approvals were in sight before buying. Then I definetly will have learned something. I do tend to enter stocks a bit early,
      but I do average down and accumulate shares along the way. That is, as long as the story still sounds good. I'm a little guilty
      of being a science chaser. At least when it comes to biotechs. I'm probably early here too, but I like to accumulate shares
      over time and really like the future prospects of this one. I relying on you to tell me when these companies are poised for
      significant moves so I can substantially increase my holdings. Not to put pressure on you or anything. In the early stages of a company,
      I'd call myself a dabbler. I don't blow my life savings on them or anything. I usually buy in larger increments once I have a
      clearer understanding of where the company is headed. I excited over NBIX's CRF antagonists and agonists meds, but really know very
      little about there DHEA project. It actually sounds kind of weak. I'm definetly not looking for it to have much of an impact on the
      stock. I'm just barely getting my feet wet here. Talk to you later. By the way, I'm also really enjoying our conversations.

    • I declared my major too - sold NRGN and others, and retrenched to my 5 best stocks, with enough cash to pick up something cheap in the weeks/months ahead (COCN or GLIA being my 2 favorites "on-deck"). I felt that the next news out of NRGN would likely be bad (e.g., further obesity drug delays) and, even in the best-case scenario didn't see enough price appreciation potential in the intermediate-term.

      About NBIX. Data from a 300-patient DHEA study are not expected until Q199. I've never heard even a rumor that this program
      would be partnered out. Not too attractive of a deal given that you can walk into any type of GNC store and buy DHEA yourself. The
      2nd Ph2 MS trial (for relapseers) has yet to start and each of the trials will likely last 2-3 years as MS trials require one to
      follow patients for 2 years post-treatment. I haven't done the homework, but you could always review BGEN's dev'l of Avonex to get
      a sense of length of trials. However, some MRI data could be released in Q298 that could shed some light on the drug.

      Other bad news is that the 1st-gen obesity drugs all have pharmacokinetic problems and the 2nd-gen compounds are only being screened as of now. Good news is that Janssen should begin Eur Ph2 of a CRF antagonist for depr by Q398.

      NeuroInv has a YE target of 15. As NeuroInv goes, this places NBIX in the 25th-50th percentile of his picks - i.e., it's not one of his recommended picks and he sets targets for lots of others to more than double their current price by YE98. Of course, I've said before that this guy's strenght is not in stock-picking nor estimating price targets.

      NBIX certainly has enough $$ to find out how good their science is. Hats off to a dev'l stage company that was profitable in '97! I think you're in early, but if only a couple of their drugs take off, that won't bother you a bit 3-5 years from now.

    • I have been following NBIX for several month's now and am extremely impressed with what they have to offer. The science this
      company is working on is red hot!!! Many of you out there will definetly have more knowledge that I on the fundamental and technical
      issues surrounding this company. My field of knowledge centers around the science that this and other neurobiological companies are
      exploring. In particular I am impressed with their CRF programs. The need for these types of drugs in the medical community is
      astounding. I realize that very few biotech companies are able to successfully bring a drug to market, but this company has all the
      right tools. They've got great management, good collaborations with larger pharmaceutical companies, a healthy amount of cash, and
      strong science. What I can bring to this discussion is up to date information on the prospects of this and other sciences. What I
      need you to help me with is when all of you out there believe this stock is ready to move. I'm considering buying in Monday
      morning. I feel strongly that with the strong and moderate buy recommendations on this stock it's going to have some movement. I hope
      all of you had a wonderful holiday and I look forward to hearing your thoughts.

      • 1 Reply to investorMD
      • I would be interested in hearing your opinions on the science being done at NBIX.

        I am similarly impressed with the background of those who head Neurocrine Biosciences. But remember, good management doesn't necessarily mean that their trials will be successful. Many a biotech has gone the way of the dodo despite strong science and management.

        The last I heard, NBIX only has one product in phase II and one product in phase I. I could be wrong. If you're familiar with the typical amount of time required to complete clinical trials, then you'll realize that it will be some time before you'll find any reference to NBIX in the PDR. That doesn't mean that the stock won't move. Take a look at ICOS. But also take a look at DEPO and CHIR and CEPH.

        Technically, NBIX's chart looks lousy. But I've never been a big fan of technical analysis.

        NBIX's price seems very attractive right now. But be careful about staking a large claim on the company. I know a couple DEPO investors that found themselves $10,000 poorer a week before Christmas. This company also had a few "Strong Buy" recommendations to its name.

        Good luck with your investing. I look forward to hearing your thoughts about NBIX.

        Best wishes,
        Lel

 
NBIX
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