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Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Message Board

  • ShaharAvi ShaharAvi Jun 16, 1998 4:54 PM Flag

    OT: To InvestorMD

    Hey Pal, long time no talk. I monitor most boards
    far less frequently than I used to, so it's harder to
    keep in touch.
    Anyway, I certainly look forward to
    hearing from you, esp. your current take on stocks we've
    discussed before. Below is a thumbnail sketch of where I'm

    COCN - didn't listen to my own advice and bought in
    too soon. Now, it's so damn oversold, I'm loathe to
    sell even though buying a non-marginable stock wasn't
    a good idea. When taking a long-term view, I don't
    mind too much that they'll do the Ph2b migraine by
    themselves, 'cause they'll get it done faster. If they get
    good results, surely the stock should break out way
    above current levels.

    IPIC - Am simply not
    tempted, not even at these prices. Just too gun-shy to
    jump in before results are released for Pagaclone and
    others. Certainly seems massively oversold, but will
    likely con't to be "dead money" till Pagoclone results.
    Might be tempted to get back in before Pagoclone
    results if further Redux studies are positive. Am losing
    faith in Bextra.

    PARS - Bought in last month.
    Another non-marginable stock - my money management has
    been woeful as of late. Will sit on it 'till release
    of HU-211 results or shortly thereafter. Am
    wondering how much publicity they'll get with good results.
    I'd think the drug would be extrememly attractive to
    any potential partner.

    IMNR - If I could only
    own 1 stock, this is it. Wish I had the cash to be
    seriously overweighted here. You'd be interested in my
    recent post (6/15) on "approaching the point of
    inevitability". Lots of short-term similarities to the
    pre-Redux/post-Redux IPIC story. You should seriously check this one
    out. FAST.

    SUPG - this one completes my current
    portfolio. Again, if I had more cash, I'd buy more. Story is
    a bit longer-term, but there are a lot of ways to
    win with this. You have time to check this one out.
    I'm betting on Rubinfield and Ellison. Had
    outstanding Ph2 cancer results that went virtually

    CYP - Happy to sit on the sidelines. I've posted a
    lot there.

    UMED - Would be my next "new buy".
    The NTZ fiasco makes the FDA look pretty bad again.
    However, that was only their 4th or 5th most important
    product at best. This is a very well-kept secret. Of all
    the stocks I follow, it now has the best projected
    appreciation based on discounted earnings.

    GLIA -
    getting to be attractively priced. Hope to get it
    cheaper, but there is a lot to like here.

    AXPH -
    recently bought some for the kids. All of the "technology"
    companies have gotten killed lately (only a few deserved
    it) - e.g., ARQL, ABSC, AXPH, PCOP. If I owned 10
    stocks, some of these would be included.

    NPSP -
    Sort of tempted. The daily volume is sickly though and
    even in best-case scenario earnings are too far off.

    NBIX, SNAP, NRGN, TTNP - my opinions haven't changed
    here. I like TTNP the best, but need to get some more
    facts about Iloperidone's dev'l. Too, they need a
    partner for at least one of their cancer drugs. NRGN has
    had more failures than any company I know. SNAP has a
    lot riding on the migraine drug. NBIX is still a ways
    off from having serious efficacy data on any drug
    aside from the DHEA.

    I'm having a lousy '98 YTD.
    Damn,I just have much less time to spend on following
    stocks. My list of those actively followed con't to get
    weeded down. However, everytime I take a fresh look at
    my portfolio, I like each of the stocks a

    Back to you. No rush - I'll be at a conference from
    Wed - Sun. I'll look for your reply in the usual
    places, or trace it through Yahoo Search. Hope all is
    well with you (and your portfolio).

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    • Hey Shahar, it's great to hear from you. Like
      you, I've been way too busy to spend much time
      following the message boards. However, I have done quite a
      bit of investing over the past few months. I'm a
      pretty big fan of internet related issues so I decided
      to do some investing in that area. I'm glad that I
      did as it has made a world of difference to my bottom
      line. However, I'm still also very active in some
      biotech issues. Like you, I'm scared of IPIC. Things just
      don't look good. I'm also not too crazy about the
      recent insider selling activity. Even a slight hint of
      Redux damage could send the stock much lower. I'm way
      out for now. I may get brave in August and bet on
      phase II Pagaclone results. We'll have to wait and
      I'm very tempted to buy more COCN. I really don't
      see any reason to think that it won't rebound to the
      $3 level in the near future. I'll be shocked if it
      continues to drop. Do you know when they plan to initiate
      their phase I anxiolytic trial? I've heard no news. I
      may have to contact the company.
      TTNP is my
      favorite of all the biotech stocks. See my most recent
      post to Lelim. In short, Ipoeridone is perfectly
      situated to become a dominant player in the antipsychotic
      market. If you haven't heard, Ziprasidone was rejected by
      the FDA and additonal info is needed. This could be
      something very minor or something major. If Ziprasidone
      isn't approved the market is gigantic for Iloperidone.
      Sertindole is now out of the running and Seroquel is
      associated with some pretty serious health risks.
      Iloperidone's chances are looking better and better with each
      passing day. OF course, the delay in cancer trials has me
      concerned. I'm keeping a close eye on TTNP.
      I'm staying
      away from SNAP, NRGN, and NBIX for now. I need to see
      some serious progress before I get in. I do like
      Sibia. I'm looking into taking a possible position
      there. Just a short term play.
      I actually don't
      know too much about the other biotechs that you
      mentioned. I guess I haven't been doing my homework. Thanks
      for the advice on IMNR. I'll check it out. I'm also
      looking into UMED. I dumped my shared in MCHM as I'm
      finding it to be one of the most lucrative stocks to buy
      and sell for quick gains. I'm out for now, but will
      buy back in soon.
      I'm really liking GLIA. How
      low do you think it will go? The offering of
      additonal shares hasn't been seen as a positive move by
      investors. I hear that Gliatech may be relacating to my neck
      of the woods(RTP, North Carolina). If so, it is
      likely that I will be able to get a lot of dirt on the
      company. I'm pretty active in the scientific community and
      usually get the scoop on local companies. Not insider
      stuff, but solid info on the potential of many of these
      companies. I'll be sure to pass anything on that may be
      helpful to you. Well, I gotta run. It was great to hear
      from you and take care. Talk to you later.

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