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Uni-Pixel, Inc. Message Board

  • alpodell alpodell May 2, 2013 6:20 AM Flag

    2015 Earnings and Valuation : LET'S DO THE MATH

    I'm working with 2015 because its earnings are the easiest to estimate. All the equipment at Kodak will have been on site and on line for more than a year and producing 10,000,000 sq feet of UniBoss a month, which is 120,000,000 units a year. Let's knock off 17% of these for defects, leaving 100,000,000 units. Let's discount today's price from $20 a unit to $18 to account for a more competitive market; this brings in revenue of $!.8 billion, which will be 10% of the estimated 2015 total touch-screen market, exactly on Killion's stated market-share target. A gross profit margin of 75% leaves $1.35 billion. We do not yet know the terms of the Kodak venture, so let's grant our partner a full half of the revenue, leaving UNXL $675mm. With Kodak bearing the production costs, UNX'sL expenses are low, perhaps $15mm (including stock options) for compensating its 50 employees, $5mm for depreciation of equipment over a five-year term, maybe $5mm for R&D to develop the next generation of product, and $25mm for taxes, as UNXL uses up the last of its NO.Ls, (No dividends yet) That leaves net income of $625mm. We divide that by the 17 million shares likely to be outstanding by then, and we have GAAP net earnings of $36.76 per fully diluted share. I think a greatly growing company like this deserves a P/E of at least 50, (Yesterday's SquawkBox had a story on Macquire Infrastructure Trust, with a P/E?e of 203.) Multiply the $36.76 by 50 and you get a price per share of $1838. With a P/E of 40 it's still worth $1470 a share, and at P/E 30, it's only $1100. If you're a skeptic, a disbeliever, a ultra-conservative investor, chop that $1100 in half. Hell, cut it by 4. That gives you $275 a share in about 2 1/2 years for a stock selling for $33 today. You still want to sell? Well, the market opens in two hours and there'll be plenty of knowledgeable long 'tutes happy to have your shares. And if it should rise to $1838 by 12/15...,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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