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Uni-Pixel, Inc. Message Board

  • staccani staccani Jan 18, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    UNXL valuation and chances of success

    Provided that the touch sensors market in 2018 is estimated will be $32B, if UNXL finally is able to mass produce and is able to deliver the superior and technology it claims to have it might end up getting a significant market share of that market. If for one second we assume it will be successfull and it will get 5% of that market, this would translate into $1.6B annual revenue, which is ca than 110M units annually at 15$ each, or ca 8-9M units pm. This would translate in a $320M net profit, assuming a 20% net profit and applying a P/E of 15, into ca $5B in market cap, which would mean ca $500 a share.
    So if UNX fails is worth $0, if it delivers its potential it might be worth $500.
    The market at the moment is estimating there is a 98% probability UNXL will fail/go bust.
    If you assume there is 10% probability of success then the stock is worth $50. With Kodak fully committed, equipment in place and agreements with OEM manufacturer and Ecosystem partner, and Killion out of the way my bet is that there is a 50%-50% success probability

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Well done. Interesting logic and numbers.

      • 1 Reply to jets1069
      • It was very well done, but the 50/50 chance conclusion was low for the UNXL rate of success...especially with Destrier Cap. in on top of the other accumulators, & with Oppy-meister staying faithful. All that have invested deeply after their extensive DD would not go in for, say, less than 80/20% chance of UNXL success or at least the PPS going way up, I would imagine ...not with that kind of capital.

        Maybe they think they can start the Tesla type squeezy now!

        Pixie's Copperhead is now supported even more... with a cobra bite & a python squeeze.

        Oh yes, and "Powered by Kodak", with "Intel INSIDE". ba bump ba bump.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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