What most here are not following is backlog OUTSIDE CREZ. It is actually increasing, and increased again this last qtr by about $2.5M, despite the bad earnings. By looking at this backlog, and how much in revenues GV has been showing per quarter in general, I believe GV will post around $16M-$18M revenues/qtr after CREZ is completed, not including the potential from the aquisition. If the aquisition goes through, GV will should IMO post around $20-$22M/qtr, and around $.06/qtr, including all recent additonal costs(ie interest assumption on a $7M loan for the aquisition), and with assumption of 24.5% margins, and a 37% tax rate going forward.
Also I believe this to be a conservative estiamte, assuming GV gets little or no additional business. I will be watching closely the Sept qtr earnings report, and whether the aquisiton goes through.
I have modeled them for about 15 million in revenue post-crez. I think there is upside to that but I think its a good assumption. I am assuming margins around 22% as their go forward number and figure that is good for .12 to .16 annualized EPS. I expect cash numbers to be better because at this point I have to think their capex should fall off substantially unless they do an acquisition.
I do have a couple of items that look like a concern. The first is that they have dropped all of that bullish language about replacing CREZ revenue. The other is that they are off on acquisition adventures which seem like a distraction for a small company that has spent a fortune expanding their own capacity without a corresponding sales increase. I would rather see them focus their energy on winning new work. but reading between the lines there is at least a risk the new work isn't there.
Of course if they announce significant new contracts all of that changes. It is also possible they have plans for another big one when CREZ is done and certainly the charges last month indicate that STEC is important enough that they were willing to spend 4 million dollars to make them happy. Normally you don't do that kind of thing for a once off customer.