GV has lost 0.21 per share on an annual basis since Jan 1, 2013. Q4 2012 they posted 0.17. That was on a net profit of over $4.2M. They haven't even posted a $2M profit in a quarter for 2013. If they post $2M in Q4 that would add about 0.08 per share, giving their full 2013 year 0.29 per share, compared to 0.47 per share in 2012. Not a good outlook for new investors. GV wil most likely break $1.50 before it goes much higher. $1.30 on the low end.
This company has some great promise for value investors, but be ready to hold your position if your already in. A big contract could change my outlook. For now I'm waiting. Good Luck!
Your reasoning is suspect. Valuation isn't based on past qtrs, only on how well the company is expected to do qoing forward. GV could have lost $20M for 2013 so far, and it still wouldn't matter, as long as they're projecting growing revenues and profits going forward. In fact, when it comes to the trend of a stock, the only thing that investors care about is revenues and earnings going forward.
GV has increased there backlog in the last qtr by $5M, and increased revenues qtr over qtr by around $6M. Going forward, they said in the 10Q(page 14) that contracts awarded since Sept 30th, and more contracts expected, will significantly augment Dec qtr revenues. We know that without the one time subcontractor loss for the Sept qtr, that they would have posted $.08 or so, and we know things are looking even better for the Dec qtr. Bottom line is, going forward looks fantastic, and they'll likely double EPS in the Dec qtr from $.05 to $.10+.
However if you feel confident in your view, maybe you should short the stock.
Recent comments by management indicate they have not been accurate in predictions as to actual performance. That said, I believe this new management team will be able to bring GV up to their predictions. It will just take some time. In the meantime the stock will trade lower, imo. I expect to start a long position within the next 6 months once the pps reaches my target. Good luck!