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Teekay Offshore Partners LP Message Board

  • fauxcow fauxcow Jan 26, 2013 7:32 PM Flag

    Big price movement...for what?

    Wow. 10X normal volume, up about 6% towards the end of the day, no news...a week left before ex-div. What gives? Big volume on TK and TGP, but not nearly as outsized as the TOO volume and jump.

    I added to my already overweight position going into the end of the year, hoping for a repeat of last January (from $26 to $30), so far so good, especially after Friday.. This year I've covered about half my position with $30 calls scattered over the year (premiums are tiny, equivalent to getting one more quarterly distribution in most cases) to protect against a repeat of the poor performance over the rest of 2012.

    At least one public equity offering should be expected this year to complete paying for the 4 shuttle tankers and the Tiro & Sidon FPSO (can never remember the City name...). A small rise in distribution this year, maybe a bigger one next year...I start to lose interest at about a 7% yield on $2.15 or $2.20 (30.50-31.50). I love the payout of this low beta name, and the built in growth from sponsor drop downs. Would like to see the growth pipeline expand with an FPSO at TK, or a new shuttle tanker or FSO conversion at TOO. Either is possible, and the market should be active with oil where it is and the amount of new prospect drilling in the North Sea...but not a lot of news out of the offshore side of Teekay this winter.

    I will look to add on any weakness following an offering or ex-div, and otherwise not get too antsy.

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16.66+0.44(+2.71%)Oct 6 4:01 PMEDT