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Tessera Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • hp_lifer hp_lifer Apr 20, 2005 1:11 PM Flag

    Why is TSRA so weak?

    They've pre-announced they will beat estimates. Intel and TXN had good results. Puzzled as to why this stock hasn't taken off. Bought a several different times with an average price about 40. Seems grossly undervalued with their revenue stream and patent protections. I'm really surprised at the weakness. Any thoughts?

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    • "So FBGA packaging is a TSRA product? "

      yes and so is CSP (chip scale package) and some more stuff.

      Cheers
      Cor

    • "For example flash memory is mostly transitioning to FBGA packages now. (think mobile phones, iPod, digital cameras ...)"

      So FBGA packaging is a TSRA product?

    • "If TSRA has a current market share of 40% and "if TSRA was receiving royalities from Infion and Micron they would have another 40% of market share, how can TSRA grow without Infion and Micrron paying TSRA royalities? "

      Hi,

      You're talking dram chip royalties only which so far hardly figured as DDR chips are mostly in TSOP packages (some FBGA options exist, probably for portable applcations).

      On the basis of 2004 market shares in dram, Samsung plus Hynix are 45%. Micron and Infineon together about 30%. The next 4 make up the rest practically (Elpida, Powerchip, Nanya, Promos); I am sure they are also working on those and they will certainly topple after MU and IFX do.

      However, this is only dram. DDR2 is only part of dram this year (about 32-35%). That will double again next year (so there comes growth from existing licensees, Samsung and Hynix).

      All in all, if they were fully paid by all dram makers this year, it would still only amount to about 7-8% of total revenues for Tessera.

      For example flash memory is mostly transitioning to FBGA packages now. (think mobile phones, iPod, digital cameras ...)

      Cheers
      Cor

    • I) I am pretty sure stive0072004 meant the NY/Eastern time zone for the first half hour of usual frantic market action.

      II) Anyhow, Sounds like an interesting idea/strategy; if I put today's (4-27-2005 an initial market down day) top five losers with (any meaningful average volume) as a test sample:

      hxxp://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INSP,CNCT,MTLG,COCO,IPAS,NYNY,OSIS,DVID,BWLD,INTL,PKTR,CPTS,XIDE,PHRM&t=1d

      a) Of course, the problem is that the list is gotten after the fact to begin with.

      b) It is difficult to see which are the top losers to begin with since most likely all are overnight gap down

      candidates and you know how fickle they can be in pre-market or after hours the night before.

      c) Even if the issue in i) can be resolved by experiences, volume observation, etc., it appears for today using

      the "backtracked" final 5 losers (INSP,CNCT,MTLG,COCO,IPAS), within the first half hour:

      i) INSP is flat
      ii) CNCT actually went against your short by 1 point
      iii) MTLG dropped by half a point
      iv) COCO dropped by a fraction only
      v) IPAS is about flat

      ---------------

      vi) NYNY dropped by .25
      vii) OSIS droped by 0.5
      viii) OSIS droped by .25
      ix) BWLD dropped by a fraction (that is stive0072004's pick)
      x) INTL went against short by .30
      xi) PKTR went against short by 1 point or more
      xii) CPTS dropped by 0.1?
      xiii) XIDE dropped by 0.2?
      xiv) PHRM dropped by .7?

      d) 2 out 14 positions will turn against you and 5 of them will not do much and only 2 out of the 14 would be quite profitable; not sure if the risk-reward would worth the while?

      e) Perhaps some more fine-tuning is required? How tight should the stop loss be?

    • when corporate officers lie to fund managers then fund managers punish the stock no matter what it is worth, TSRA lied and their stock reflects that lie, so mortgage your house and go long, your fight ing a losing battle, when they beat the stock down to 15 maybe TSRA will get the hint, yes im short, what dumb ass fund manger is going to reward liars, beat TSRA down another 10 points

    • Do you have any new thoughts?

      • 1 Reply to fe4o3
      • I'll admit I'm stumped and bleeding too as I bought more shares at 33 and at 30. The business itself hasn't changed since February yet the stock has cratered due to clumsy reporting/guidance and the insider activity. I truly expected the dip to much shallower and for the stock to recover within days. Clearly I was wrong but I'm still puzzled. The companies fundamentals are unchanged but there has been a tremendous amount of institutional selling and it re-accelerated again today. At this point I can only postulate two causes. Either there truly is something very rotten with TSRA and the insiders know it OR this is an extreme example of Wall Street over-reaction. Since I'm very long I'm sure hoping its the latter!

    • agree with you and thanks for pointing it out.

      the point I was trying to make was that based on current valuations the institutions havent made a lot of money on this stock yet. and they are in this for the longer term atleast 2-3 yrs.

    • The result is not the institution's cost basis. The valuation given is for the quarter when reporting was made. If an institution held 1M shares in Q1'04 and then added 100K shares in Q4'04, all 1.1M shares would be reported at Q4 valuations. (See footnote on valuation on the holdings page referenced).

    • use the following link to get to yahoo's major holders page..

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=TSRA

      just divide the amount by the shares held for the major holders. it should give you an idea about the cost basis.

    • they beat by .24 and guided way above consensus for next quarter and look at the sham perpetrated on them today, look at ffiv after hours today they beat by .02 and guided above and down over 6%, this market is deathly sick, hedge funds/market makers have run amock, they are stealing everyone blind while sec sits on their pathetic brains. i really hate selling but think i am out in am, this market is rigged by market makers and hedge funds us little guys don't stand a chance.

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TSRA
36.84+0.42(+1.15%)Dec 26 4:00 PMEST

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