I decided to cover today at the 16.60-16.70 range. I still believe what I have told here in the past few weeks but rather make a rational decision like many suggested. I've made 31% profit what is not bad by any standard, of course now I wish I got out at 14-15 range. :)
The reason of my decision: I must admit that the upside potential is just so much bigger than the downside I rather not risk to hold a short position anymore. Not yet considering going long but if the price remains attractive before Thursday I may take a smaller long position. Also some recent ITC document made me thinking but haven't had the time to read them all yet.
Now I hope the longs can make a nice profit soon too, they really deserve it after such a long waiting.
Good luck to All!
Your cover timing was as good as my play on SPIL. Congrats! I sold some August 20 calls today on the run up. I'm betting that nothing happens in the next two weeks of any consequence. Tomorrow's release will just be a halftime report unless there are some stunning results on the optics side (which I doubt will carry the day). I just wish these lawfirms were publicly traded. You know they are making money hand over fist. In a lot of ways, TSRA is almost like a sports franchise with all these contests going on.
After seeing today's and yesterday's action I don't think anymore that a settlement will be released. The news always have been leaked in the past, I don't think today will be the exception. I sold my shares with a very little profit and the call options with a some loss. Maybe I'm not meant to make money on the long side on this stock. :)
I rather listen to the cc with no position open.
I full heartedly wish the longs to make their long deserved profit today/tomorrow!
Fitter: I think you have been absolutely right.
I probably bought your calls :) There is some probability for something positive to be announced, I bought some Aug calls.
Worst case I close my options on Friday if nothing gets released with small loss.
Our resident know-it-all was short a couple of days ago because the company was losing the AMKR arbitration, losing in the PTO, losing in the ITC. He ignored everyones calls to cover at lower levels because we were all wrong. His comments and his strategy make little sense. He posts links to court documents, that is his contribution, nothing more. He provides no logical analysis of legal activities, although he likes people to believe he's a patent expert. Follow his advice at your own risk, since it is a large one.
That said, this company knows its legal expenses are significant. Their litigation costs are high every quarter, its part of their business. They understand that they have several parallel court actions taking place. investorpatent is having some sort of an epiphany realizing there are high litigation costs. The possibility exists that litigation costs will be higher than expected, its also possible that litigation costs will be lower than expected. They may meet, they may beat, they may miss. Legal expenses are fluid and fluctuate dramatically, which is why TSRA stopped providing guidance on legal costs.
investorpatent makes you believe he knows something. He doesn't. He is following the advice of others and passing it off as his own.
I stated in a prior post that the company has a history of making these announcements with earnings releases. It has nothing to do with throwing anybody a bone, they have done it with great releases and they have done it with poor releases. Nobody is going to "forget" about higher litigation costs. A settlement or a win is the result of these investments. The higher costs will continue next quarter, nobody is going to forget, litigation is ongoing. This stock will go up on any legal win, almost regardless of earnings. My bet is that they report in-line or close.
Because of the high litigation costs the financial figures won't be good. Therefore the management must throw a bone to the shareholders, a settlement would make everybody forget about high costs. It's only speculation but the upside is higher in this case therefore I'm betting on it.
Additionally from the recent ITC documents it looks like TSRA has a strong case against ST-NV, I expect them to settle soon.
Rummy, here it is:
It's related to ST-NV only, it seems that they have been separated from the rest of the respondents by the Judge.
Long read, 136 pages.
I have made significant profit on TSRA in the past, in part by heeding your advice (sold/shorted in the 22-23 range and bought in the 13-14 range on the same day back in March). I have disagreed with your reasons for being short in recent weeks but appreciate your posts. Your post today is a class act. Good luck.