They haven't lowered the outlook for 2010 because they haven't provided annual guidance. You have to deal in FACTS. Only guidance issued is for Q1 which will reflect the volume pricing incentives from Q3 and Q4 2009, but in Q2 '10 the clock resets since they are paid 1 qtr in arrears. So, you'll see your big improvements in less than 90 days.
If you want to speak in technicals, then you have to consider that TSRA just tested 17 from May 09 and bounced. Will it test again? Maybe. But if it bounces again I expect it will get through resistance in low 20's pretty easily. Not a lot of bagholders at that level trying to get their money back.
Two ways to look at technicals - the bear case and the bull case.