I think the low $40-s are more likely than below $10. But this is going to be an interesting year for Tessera. The "Wireless" re-appeal may not be accepted, which would mean a windfall. Tessera's technology for very high interconnect densities may get adopted, other technologies for achieving the same end may get adopted, or we may just get to put off the technological change for another year--each one with major consequences. The first "DRAM" legal decision ought to be in sometime before Summer ends. The first results will be in on consumer response to Tessera's imaging software--if it's preferred to in-house efforts, that could be very nice for a long time (and a complete flop would hurt badly).
My real guess for a year from now is a bit below $30, with favorable results from both ITC appeals but no closure in sight. MicroPILR will be licensed to a couple of significant accounts, but somebody will be doing comparable densities with a different approach (and they'll be sueing each other).