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Tessera Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • jacosa jacosa Jan 27, 2011 6:41 PM Flag

    What does it all mean?

    Quick reaction is that the big developments going forward are customer recalcitrance, slow adoption of very high interconnect density technologies, confusion regarding the optical segment and legal "opportunities."

    This sounds more negative than it is, net. With the most fundamental high density patents expired, some customer push-back was always a given. Tessera has maintained that other patents and trade secrets included in the standard license will prove decisive. This is therefore likely to shape up as one case, with every recalcitrant customer joining it or with a "designated defendant" and everyone else informally agreeing to go with the decision of that suit. There is a chance that this or a part of it might wind up folded into the AMKOR arbitration.

    Accepting Tessera's judgement that the circuit court is unlikely to want to go over the Wireless case again, the next appeal will be to The Supreme Court. That puts a fairly tight limit on how much longer this will linger. I think the amount of money at stake gets revealed when the appeals of the ITC decision finish. I don't think many people appreciate the magnitude of this (probably comparable to the enterprise value of Tessera).

    The biggest of the big issues is slow adoption of very high interconnect density packaging. It DOES appear that the issue is just that, rather than existence of major competing approaches to the problem. There just isn't a chance that existing interconnect technologies will be adequate for two more years. SOMETHING has to happen soon.

 
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