I think your time frame is waaaayy over-optimistic. Nobody expects the Amkor arbitration to end in 2011. It's possible, but unlikely, that we'll learn the amount of the bonds posted in connection with the Wireless matter before year-end. If CAFC agrees to re-hear that appeal, there could be a long slog ahead; even if they don't, a possible SCOTUS appeal would probably remain pending until next Spring (and another year if it's heard). The DRAM appeal could be decided in a few months; the application of "the doctrine of exhaustion" there seems weird, but it might hold up anyway; a CAFC re-hearing seems likely after the first decision because of that legal issue. That's a particularly important case for Tessera because it's the only one the company has lost.
On a short time scale, the most likely positive catalyst is substantial adoption of microPILR, which we could see within 6 months.