I sure wouldn't want Tessera to be another Interdigital (I have my sources--it's a VERY screwed-up company). But price action? Why not?
Absent actual money awards from some of the ongoing matters, TSRA is being and will be held back by uncertainty of revenues from existing licenses (DO they have enough remaining IP to make them stick?)
Another problem is the recent doubling of memory density. Pinout (the basis of royalties) increases less-than-proportionally to capacity. On the other hand, connection densities for some fairly ordinary parts are getting into the range where Tessera's newer technology might make sense. We know for sure that Tessera has taken a hit just lately from higher memory density, but whether it's good or bad long-term is unclear.
Of course it could be. The better question is the likelihood, which is all a complete guess by any of us. I think TSRA has a compelling story and stock should hit low $20's again soon, however maintaining stock price has always been the challenge and in this economy, well !!!! I feel TSRA is a great company for some M&A opportunities and the right one could make us some great $$$.
I think IDCC's patents target pressing issues in the wireless world i.e. network congestion, connection speeds, etc. I am a TSRA shareholder though too. IDCC also has, in my mind, more general acceptance of their patents. IMO.