I suspect that Apco is more than purely a play on oil prices. I think that in the case of Apco, the enormous price drop of the past year was largely due to political concerns that will probably prove to be of a temporary nature.
I just stumbled on to Apco Oil and Gas today. I'm only now beginning my research. It looks like a potential value play. I need to research the cash flow situation. When a company has high EPS but low or negative free cash flow, it raises a bit of a red flag.
On the other hand, the other metrics look good to me. The Graham Number (which I use as a conservative target price) is $17. The pre-tax TTM earnings yield is 19% (I consider anything above 10% to be good). The pre-tax return on tangible capital employed is 32% (I consider anything above 20% to be good). The tangible book value above $10, which is higher than the current share price. No real debt to speak of.
My thesis is that the massive price drop since early 2012 is due primarily to fears that some of the company's assets in Argentina will be seized by the corrupt socialist regime in that country. However, these fears may turn out to be overblown, as often proves to be the case. The regime may have already overplayed its hand. If the fear of nationalization abates, the share price could enjoy a huge relief rally.